Industry leaders say freight capacity is top priority
Speakers at NITL Spring Forum focus on ways the industry can work together to enhance U.S. transportation productivity.
By John D. Schulz, Contributing Editor -- Logistics Management, 4/1/2007
WASHINGTON — Shippers take note: There is a growing pile of 10-year freight forecasts for the next 10 years coming our way from the nation’s transportation associations. And according to Bill Graves, president of the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the bottom line to all of the reports is simple: “It is up and up and up.”
Graves shared his prediction with the more than 75 attendees at the National Industrial Transportation League’s (NITL) Spring Policy Forum at the end of March. “There’s going to be enough freight for everybody,” said Graves, “and how the pie is sliced up really doesn’t matter.” However, according to Graves, one thing is for certain: “We’re obviously going to have a lot more trucks out on the road.”
Here are a few thumbnail sketches of the long-term forecasts coming from the ATA and other aligned industry associations: The number of commercial trucks is expected to grow by 40 percent over the next 10 years; intermodal growth is forecasted to increase by 80 percent over that time; there will be a need for 110,000 new drivers by 2014, with about half of those needed just to keep up with economic growth; railroads will need to hire 60,000 new workers to keep up with demand over the next three years; and the freight demand forecast for the next 10 years is for 30 percent increases across all modes.
NITL President John Ficker said that by 2035 there could be a doubling in freight volume. And even if that forecast is only half right, that has the potential to strain today’s current freight capacity system well beyond its limit. “We need to face the reality of what’s out there,” Ficker told the room. “Shippers and carriers are some of the most creative people around, but they’ve been pulling rabbits out of a hat. How many rabbits are still in the hat?”
One way to improve truck productivity, said ATA’s Graves, is by utilizing longer and heavier trucks. ATA is quietly backing a bill being introduced that would increase truck weights from 80,000 to 97,000 pounds. The key question, according to Graves, is where those trucks could run. “It would be very healthy for the industry to take a look at that…since our number one priority is capacity,” said Graves.
Ed Hamberger, president of the Association of American Railroads (AAR), said he’s against the move, adding that he’s concerned about the economic disparity of such vehicles. But in concession, Hamberger said size and weight “should be on the table,” along with the amount of tax paid by truckers.
“We have a respectful disagreement,” said Graves concerning AAR’s position. “If we all give a little, we can gain a lot. We are just asking for an opportunity to discuss productivity [gains] as a way to move freight. That’s a conversation we think ought to occur. But it’s not an issue that we are obsessed with.”
In the meantime, a strange thing is happening as all these forecasts call for more and more freight on the roads, rails, oceans, and in the air. “Productivity in trucking is actually falling,” Graves said. “Congestion is very counterproductive…[as are] hours-of-service rules, the driver shortage, and environmental regulations. It makes it challenging to get the kind of productivity out of every truck that we need.”
It is time that Congress commits itself to a national program to improve freight transportation, said Graves, adding that the trucking industry is backing a higher fuel tax, providing the proceeds are dedicated to transportation improvements exclusively.
“ATA has very clearly found support among its membership for a fuel tax increase,” he said. “But overall, we need to get our act together to collectively go to Congress in the next reauthorization to do things that advance our ability to move freight,” added Graves.
View All On-Demand Webcasts