Railroad shipping: AAR says volumes for week ending October 10 are down
Jeff Berman -- Logistics Management, 10/16/2009
WASHINGTON —
The Association of American Railroads said this week that total volume for the week ending October 10 was down 17.2 percent compared to the corresponding week last year.
Carload freight for the week, which does not include intermodal data, totaled 273,429 carloads, which was behind the week ending October 3, which hit 277,734 carloads. Carloads were down 15.4 percent in the West and 18.3 percent in the East.
While carload freight was down, AAR officials noted that intermodal loadings showed some modest gains. Intermodal loadings checked in at 208,941 trailers or containers for the week ending October 10, which was slightly better than the 206,293 trailers or containers for the week ending October 3. This is the highest weekly intermodal volume tally for all of 2009, according to the AAR, but it was still down 11 percent year-over-year. Intermodal container and trailer volumes were down 4.6 percent and 34.9 percent, respectively, year-over-year. Although intermodal volumes were down, there has been steady overall improvement in recent weeks, compared to pre-Labor Day weekly volumes, which were in the 189,000-200,000 range.
The AAR, railroad executives and industry analysts have said that rail volumes continue to reflect the overall economy, but have also pointed out that volumes appear to be stabilizing and not getting incrementally worse. And with the fourth quarter here, analysts say that year-over-year volumes will look better in comparison to the sharp decline at this time a year ago, when the recession was not yet fully in effect.
"We expect year-over-year volumes to continue to appear less worse throughout the year, as comps continue to ease going forward," said Ed Wolfe, president of Wolfe Research, in a research note. "However, demand remains weak, as total volumes decreased 0.5% sequentially on the week, led by a sharp decline in metals volumes, offset somewhat by week-to-week improvements in grain and coal volumes."
Weekly rail volume, which is considered as a "truer" indicator of rail performance, was estimated at 30.8 billion ton-miles, a 16.1 percent year-over-year decline. This marks the fourth consecutive week ton-miles are up year-over-year, passing the week ending October 3, which hit 29.7 billion ton-miles.
Of the 19 commodities tracked by the AAR, 17 were down year-over-year, with nonmetallic minerals and grain mill products up 6.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. On the negative side were coal at -15.8 percent, lumber & wood products at -32.5 percent, and chemicals at -5.0 percent, among others.
Through the first 40 weeks of 2009, the AAR said that U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,655,334 carloads, an 18.1 percent annual decline. Trailers and containers-at 7,556,240 trailers or containers-were down 16.6 percent, and total volume at an estimated 1.14 trillion ton-miles was off by 17.2 percent.
September performance: The AAR also reported this week that U.S. freight railroads originated 1,380,684 carloads in September, which is down 14.2 percent-or 227,837 carloads-from September 2008. This marks the 11th consecutive double-digit monthly decline, the AAR said. But it said that September's decline was the lowest percentage decline since December 2008.
Intermodal volumes in September totaled 993,235 trailers and containers, a 14.6 percent-or 169,912 unit-decrease from September 2008.
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