Supply chain management/global logistics: The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index offers hope for 2010
Supply chain economists speaking at the National Industrial Transportation League’s annual conference agree with other experts that growth will be slow, but measured.
Patrick Burnson -- Logistics Management, 11/20/2009
ANAHEIM—Supply chain economists speaking at the National Industrial Transportation League’s (NITL) annual conference agree with other experts that growth will be slow, but measured.According to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.0 percent gain in September, and a 0.4 percent rise in August.
“After half a year of consecutive increases, the month-to-month growth of the LEI is stabilizing and the gains continue to be broad-based,” said Conference Board economist, Ataman Ozyildirim. “Meanwhile, the coincident economic index has been essentially flat since June, after declining since November 2007. The composite indexes suggest the
recovery is unfolding and economic activity should continue improving in the near term.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in October, following a 0.1 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent decline in September, and a 0.4 percent decline in August.
“The data indicate that economic recovery is finally setting in,” said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “We can expect slow growth through the first half of 2010. The pace of growth, however, will depend critically on how much demand picks up, and how soon.”
This overview harmonized with one provided by two prominent financial analysts speaking at the NITL’s recently concluded conference in Anaheim.
Jason H. Seidl, director of Dahlman Rose & Co., LLC, told shippers that a soft recovery was in place for 2010, noting that rising consumer confidence was in the offing. His forecast for 5.6 percent growth was far more bullish that that expressed by The Conference Board, however.
John Barnes III, managing director of equity research with RBC Capital Market was more cautious, opining that shippers could a “double-dip” trend might be occurring if gross domestic product is not meeting anticipated levels by early next year.
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