Railroad shipping: AAR says volumes for week ending November 21 are year's best
Jeff Berman, Group News Editor -- Logistics Management, 11/29/2009
WASHINGTON-While 2009 railroad volumes have fallen far short of the record highs reached in recent years, the week ending November 21 saw freight traffic hit its highest level of the year, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
Weekly carload freight, which does not include intermodal data, was 287,087 carloads, topping the week ending November 14, which hit 281,218 carloads, the week ending November 7 which hit 274,486 carloads and the week ending October 31 at 275,349. Carloads were down 8.8 percent in the West year-over-year and 4.8 percent compared to 2007. And in the East, carloads were down 3.8 percent year-over-year and were up 6 percent compared to 2007.
In October, AAR officials said that they will be reporting 2009 weekly rail traffic with year-over-year comparisons for 2008 and 2007 from this point on, because at this time a year ago is when the economic downturn began to take hold.
Intermodal container and trailer volumes-at 213,382 trailers and containers-were down 3.1 percent year-over-year and up 11.5 percent compared to 2007. And intermodal is up on a sequential basis for the last four weeks-totals for the three previous weeks are 208,056; 206,890; and 203,860. Intermodal container volume was up 3.4 percent year-over-year and 19.4 percent compared to 2007, while trailer volume was off 26.8 percent year-over-year and 16.6 percent compared to 2007.
Intermodal volumes-as evidenced by the last four weeks-are starting to show some consistent growth, coupled with higher volumes compared to late summer volumes that week in the 189,000-200,000 weekly range. Recent data indicates these volumes have settled into the 200,000-to-210,000 range.
And as LM has previously reported, the AAR, railroad executives and industry analysts have stated that rail volumes continue to reflect the overall economy and also pointed out that volumes appear to be stabilizing and not getting incrementally worse.
But even with weaker year-over-comparisons, many industry experts contend that even with these signs of stabilization there are no obvious or immediate signs conditions are truly improving. And even with weekly volumes appearing "less worse," analysts maintain that demand remains week, which is continually reflected in these weekly numbers.
"From a traffic flow perspective, it is still an overall lousy snapshot," said an industry analyst. "We are reaching a new level ground although it is still well below last year. But there is some optimism...and easier year-over-year comparisons, too. These numbers continue to tell us that the economy is not getting worse, but there are no obvious signs things are getting better in the near future."
Considered a valid economic indicator, weekly rail volume was estimated at 32.1billion ton-miles, which is ahead of the last two weeks 31.6 billion ton-miles and 30.8 billion ton-miles, respectively. This is down 6.1 percent year-over-year and up 4.9 percent compared to 2007.
Of the 19 commodities tracked by the AAR, 13 were down year-over-year, with grain up 8.1 percent and chemicals also up 8.1 percent. Lumber and wood products were down 16.3 percent, and coal loadings were down 11.4 percent. Motor vehicles and equipment were down 1.5 percent and lumber & wood products were down 16.3 percent.
Through the first 46 weeks of 2009, the AAR said that U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 12,325,563 a 17.3 percent annual decline and an 18 percent decline from 2007. Trailers or containers-at 8,801,968-were down 15.6 percent from 2008 and 17.9 percent from 2007. And total volume of an estimated 1.32 trillion ton-miles was down 16.4 percent from 2008 and 16.5 percent from 2007.
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