Market Watch
By Staff -- Logistics Management, 9/1/2000
Trucking
Last month, we warned shippers to expect a slowdown in truck rates in 2001. Little did we know that the month of July would show an immediate slowdown. Our index for average prices charged by U.S. trucking and courier companies tumbled 0.5% between June and July 2000. The rates for trucking freight locally remained unchanged over that period, while rates for truckload intercity shipping dropped a mere 0.1%. Average rates for less-than-truckload intercity trucking, however, fell a full 1.7%.
% CHANGE VS.: 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago Less-than-truckload -1.7 +0.9 +4.3 Truckload -0.1 +1.7 +2.3 Agricultural-not local 0.0 +3.0 +4.8 General freight-local 0.0 +1.8 +1.5 Agricultural-local 0.0 0.0 +1.7 |
Water
In July, shippers continued to navigate some tricky currents as overall water transportation rates rose 1.3% from the previous month and 6.3% from July 1999 levels. The currents were strong in both outbound and inbound deep-sea foreign freight transportation. Outbound rates rose 6.4% between June and July, while inbound rates rose 1.4%. Comparing July 2000 numbers against year-ago prices, outbound rates are up only 6.5%. But thanks to earlier strong inflation trends, inbound rates are up 18.2% over the same year-ago period.
% CHANGE VS.: 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago Inbound liner +1.4 +18.9 +18.2 Outbound liner +6.4 +12.9 +6.5 Domestic deep sea 0.0 +3.4 +4.4 Grt. Lks.-St Lawrence +0.1 0.0 0.0 Mississippi River +3.9 +3.5 +0.5 |
Rail
Though the U.S. economy is steaming along at a strong growth rate, rates for shipping freight via intermodal rail held steady between June and July 2000. Non-intermodal rail transportation of freight, meanwhile, rose 0.3% over the same one-month period. Looking at July 2000 compared with July 1999, we see that rail rates for shipping primary metals rose the fastest (up 6.8%) followed by rates for chemicals and allied products (up 5.2%). A slowdown in construction will likely take some pressure off rail rates by the middle of next year.
% CHANGE VS.: 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago Coal/Petroleum 0.0 +0.9 +0.9 Chemicals +1.7 +4.7 +5.2 Farm products +0.5 -0.4 +1.7 Motor vehicles 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Metallic ores 0.0 0.0 +1.9 |
Air
Despite some turbulence in jet-fuel pricing, U.S. providers of aircargo and air-courier services continued to hold their prices steady, on average, in July 2000. Compared with June numbers, aircargo rates rose only 0.1%, international air courier rates fell a mere 0.1%, and domestic air courier rates held steady. Compared with July 1999 levels, however, the flight doesn't appear so calm; domestic and international air courier rates rose 10.3% and 4.6%, respectively. Nonetheless, given that July price data looked so quiet, our forecast for a 1.3% rise in air transportation rates in the third quarter now might have to be revised downward.
% CHANGE VS.: 1 month ago 6 mos. ago 1 yr. ago Scheduled air cargo (property) 0.0 +0.5 +1.5 Domestic air courier 0.0 +10.3 +10.3 International air courier -0.1 +4.6 +4.6 |
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