Formal negotiations for a new labor contract for West Coast ports were scheduled to begin earlier this month. But both sides expect progress to be slow, and with the prospect of a work slowdown, strike or lockout looming, many trans-Pacific shippers have begun to accelerate their inbound shipments and build up inventories.

The current agreement between the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which represents employers of dock labor, and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) expires on July 1. As of late April, however, the two sides had not yet exchanged proposals. So late a start for the talks, together with all the saber rattling by both sides, has some observers concerned that West Coast ports could see a labor slowdown this summer. The union, which represents about 42,000 workers on the West Coast and in Alaska and Hawaii, employed slowdowns during the last two rounds of negotiations in 1996 and 1999.

A lockout by PMA members also appears possible. A complete shutdown of the ports could spur the Bush administration to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act, speculates Robin Lanier, executive director of the West Coast Waterfront Coalition, which represents shippers, carriers, intermodal operators and the PMA. That would force both the unions and port management to continue working during a 60-day cooling-off period.

Not surprisingly, the two sides have conflicting objectives for the upcoming talks.

Steve Stallone, communications director for the ILWU, says the top priorities for the union will be maintaining health insurance coverage for members and their families as well as seeking increases in pension benefits for both current and retired workers. For the PMA, increasing workplace productivity is most important, though the union, which sees productivity efforts as a threat to jobs, is likely to resist.

Another point of disagreement is jurisdiction over job assignments. "We're concerned that the use of technology will move work that is traditionally ILWU work to non-union workers elsewhere," Stallone says. "We want to maintain jobs that are our jobs."

The union will also fight management's efforts to eliminate the traditional dispatch system, under which union employees report to a dispatch hall each morning to receive an assignment for the day. (The PMA wants workers to report to regular work assignments instead.) "We're not going to do away with the dispatch hall," Stallone says. "They've been fighting that since the union was formed in 1934."

The potential for disruption has shippers worried. "Shippers don't want a strike, but they don't want [the PMA] to roll over either," Lanier says. "A lot of people have a lot riding on this."

A slowdown, strike or lockout could disrupt the entire U.S. economy. Merchandise that moves through West Coast ports represents about 8 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, according to comments submitted to Congress last year by Lanier's group.

Coalition members visited Capitol Hill earlier this month. "We're trying to get folks here in Washington energized about this," Lanier says. "We don't think the economy can afford the damage a strike or lockout would impose.