The eight-year battle over the right of Mexican motor carriers to operate in the United States ended Nov. 27, when President Bush lifted a ban that had been in place since late 1994. That order opens the way for U.S. shippers to hire Mexican truckers to handle their cross-border shipments. (The ban on cabotage—offering domestic service in another country—still stands.)

Under NAFTA, Mexican trucking companies were to become eligible to handle international shipments in the United States as of January 1, 1995. Just days before the border opening, though, the Clinton Administration delayed implementation, citing safety concerns. Mexican authorities filed a complaint; in 2001, a NAFTA arbitration panel ruled that the United States had violated the terms of NAFTA, and directed the U.S. government to open the cross-border market. The implementing legislation that followed required federal and state agencies to increase their oversight of motor carrier safety. Once the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) certified that those requirements had been met, the President authorized Mexican carriers to operate throughout the country.

Before they can do business in the interior, Mexican carriers must apply for authority to operate beyond existing border commercial zones. By the end of November, 130 trucking and bus companies had already done so. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) will review those applications for compliance with U.S. laws, and must provide 10 days' notice to the public of any approvals.

DOT has been criticized for allowing Mexican truckers to receive provisional operating authority for 18 months. During that period, FMCSA will conduct on-site safety and regulatory compliance audits. If they pass, Mexican carriers will receive permanent operating authority. Critics say no authority, provisional or permanent, should be granted until after a full audit has been completed. According to DOT, only about half of the current applicants are actually ready to undergo those audits.

A coalition of environmental, labor and public safety organizations has filed suit in California to prevent Mexican truck access to the U.S. interior. The group charges that Mexican trucks pose a pollution hazard, and that FMCSA has not performed required environmental impact studies. DOT responded in a statement filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco that it was in compliance with all federal requirements, and that the potential environmental impact of the small number of Mexican trucks expected to enter the United States would be "negligible."

In all likelihood, the number of Mexican truckers serving the U.S. interior will indeed be quite small, says Dr. James Giermanski, professor of international business at Belmont Abbey College in Charlotte, N.C., and a Logistics Management contributor. He predicts that most won't stray far beyond the border, and will instead choose to serve cities such as Dallas, San Antonio and Houston, where they are likely to find backhauls to Mexico. Because they will need to develop an infrastructure in the United States, including terminals, yard equipment, staff and administrative capabilities, it will take several years for them to develop any significant business, he adds.

Gary Nichols, director of business development for truckload carrier Contract Freighters Inc., which partners with a number of Mexican motor carriers, agrees that it will take time for Mexican carriers to develop a real presence in this country. "It will not be a mass invasion," he says. "The responsible Mexican carriers will determine from a business standpoint whether it will be profitable for them to operate here." He also predicts that smaller, "mom and pop" truckers are likely to have difficulty with regulatory compliance, leading to bad press that could unfairly paint all Mexican motor carriers with the same brush.

Giermanski expects some U.S. shippers will give Mexican motor carriers a try, especially if they can get low rates by offering both northbound and southbound shipments. Still, he says, compared to the total volume of trade that moves between the United States and Mexico, the amount of traffic that will be carried by Mexican trucks to and from the interior of the United States will be "like a gnat trying to step on an elephant. We're really not going to feel the effects."