Since 1983, the Atlanta-based research firm The Colography Group has been following and forecasting transportation and logistics industry trends. Through phone interviews with literally thousands of transportation buyers, it has kept an eye on all aspects of the field and accurately predicted what's coming next.

Now, on its 20th birthday, the company is peering through the trend telescope to suggest what lies ahead for the transportation industry. Colography's analysts see truckload and LTL carriers continuing to focus on shipments traveling more than 1,500 miles, while the medium-haul market—900 miles to 1,500 miles—will decline in importance.

Length-of-haul in general is expected to shrink, which will drive growth in regional short-haul transportation. Buying decisions in the future will be more heavily based on time considerations, with a focus on speed and reliability, Colography suggests. Improvements in technologies that provide greater visibility throughout the supply chain should make the management of time-definite shipping easier.

Colography Group analysts also forecast that the average size and weight of shipments will shrink as shippers move toward decentralized and disaggregated structures designed to turn out smaller, more frequent consignments. E-business distribution platforms, where goods can be "pulled" directly by consignees, will help promote this trend.

These trends, said Colography Group President Ted Scherck, "are largely responsible for seismic shifts in competitive positioning. Providers that embraced the secular changes and positioned themselves accordingly have thrived." Companies that fail to change will fall behind or go out of business, Scherck added, and he sees nothing on the horizon to indicate a reversal of those trends.