Truckload capacity will continue to tighten this year as it did in 2003, while LTL capacity will hold steady. That's the opinion of almost three-quarters of the respondents to a recent shipper survey conducted by New York-based stock analyst Bear, Stearns & Co.

When asked to compare current conditions to those of the year just past, 58 percent of the shippers surveyed noted that capacity at the truckload level was either "tight" or "extremely tight" in a year-to-year comparison. In contrast, only 16 percent considered LTL capacity to be tight compared to last year, while 57 percent viewed it as "balanced." The perception that capacity has loosened in the LTL sector is attributable in large part to the departure of Consolidated Freightways in the third quarter of 2002; CF's shutdown left thousands of shipments stranded until other carriers were able to pick up that business, so capacity was unusually tight during that period.

When asked how they viewed truckload capacity potential in 2004, 74 percent of respondents said that they expect it to tighten yet again. Of that number, 14 percent said they expect capacity will be "significantly tighter"—twice the percentage who said so the year before. The survey notes that those expectations reflect the fact that in recent years, the truckload sector has consolidated as many small companies have failed.

The view on the LTL side is brighter. More than half of the shippers surveyed—55 percent—said that they expect capacity to hold steady in 2004. This is up from 39 percent a year ago.

The full report, which also covers rail and ocean trends, is available at the Bear, Stearns Web site, www.bearstearns.com.