At this writing, we have yet to see a single major less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier announce that it's going forward with a general rate increase (GRI), but we expect a number will be doing so during the next few weeks. Our take is that many increases will be "averaging" in the neighborhood of 6.0 percent, similar to last year's hikes. ("Averaging," because many times there are substantial variances above and below the average increase.) It wouldn't surprise us to see carriers implement their 2004 GRIs earlier than they did last year.

What has been happening so far, though, is that three regional motor carrier rate bureaus have already approved GRIs for publication. The first bureau to act on a general rate proposal was the Pacific Inland Tariff Bureau, which publishes rates for a number of smaller LTL carriers in the Pacific Northwest. That group will be raising its rates almost across the board by 5.99 percent, effective May 31. That will be a month earlier than last year's GRI, which took effect July 1.

The second rate bureau to announce a GRI was the Southern Motor Carriers Rate Conference, known as SMC³. First, the bureau will restructure its Class 70 base rates to reflect a smoother progression by distance, and that same restructuring will then be applied to other classes. While no percentage increases have as yet been publicly released, we understand the restructuring will result in increases ranging from less than 1 percent to as high as 9 percent, depending on the distance involved, with an average hike of about 5 percent.

After that restructuring, additional percentage increases, shown in the table on this page, will be tacked on to all SMC³ tariffs that apply to interstate and/or foreign commerce. There will be no increases in truckload rates, accessorial rates and charges, or arbitrary charges.

The overall percentage impact of this additional increase, according to SMC³, will be 6.1%, but shipments under 2,000 pounds will pay considerably more than that.

This increase is scheduled to take effect on June 7, 2004—nearly two months earlier than last year's GRI, which took effect on August 1. It should be noted here that SMC³'s CzarLite rates, which are widely used by both carriers and brokers, will undergo the same restructuring and increases. In the process, some of the advantages they've enjoyed over other rate scales could be diminished or even disappear altogether.

The General Rate Committee of the Middlewest Motor Freight Bureau voted on April 29 to implement a general rate increase on June 7, which will result in an "overall revenue impact not to exceed 6.5 percent," according to an announcement. Increases for different rate classes vary between 4.5 and 8.4 percent, with no change in minimum, accessorial, and arbitrary charges.

The best advice we can give you at this time: Once the bureaus' and individual carriers' general rate increases are in place, check to see how the new rates compare with the ones you've been paying in your top 10 lanes. This should give you a pretty good idea of how hard you've been hit. Then compare the new rates with other transportation options that are available to you. And keep an eye on your LTL carriers: It may well be that these earlier increases could encourage some individual carriers to move up the effective date of their own 2004 increases.