Is this the year that will mark the end of truckload carriers' control over pricing? Will shippers be able to return to the days of low-single-digit price hikes, even as they battle fuel surcharges that can approach 20 percent of overall freight rates? Will it finally be a good time to be a truckload shipper once again?

Maybe. The winds of change are beginning to blow in the truckload sector. Truckload pricing grew an average of 3.6 percent in the first quarter, according to a J.P. Morgan survey of publicly held motor carriers. That's the lowest rate of increase in three years, and it's well below the 5.8 percent average rate increase measured in the fourth quarter of last year.

Morgan Stanley trucking analyst Chad Bruso reports that his company's TL index is below year-ago levels, which may indicate that capacity additions will continue to outstrip growth in demand. Bruso predicts that TL pricing will be "firm," with contract renewals including 3 percent to 4 percent rate increases, excluding fuel surcharges.

Still, other analysts believe that pricing will remain favorable to carriers because of a fundamental shift in the way shippers view capacity in the TL sector. "Most shippers have bought into the theory that the industry will likely be plagued by a long-run capacity shortage," says John G. Larkin, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore. Larkin forecasts truckload rate increases of 4 percent to 6 percent for the remainder of this year, excluding fuel surcharges.

Larkin suggests that an important factor behind carriers' pricing power for the past several years—capacity constraints, which is another way of saying "driver shortage"—will continue to influence pricing. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimates that industry currently is short 20,000 drivers, a figure the group predicts will hit 111,000 by 2014. Some say TL carriers are spending more on recruiting, training, and retaining drivers—it can cost as much as $10,000 per driver—as they are on sales and marketing.

"Clearly, freight is more plentiful than are marginally qualified drivers," Larkin says.

There doesn't seem to be any short-term fix. Drug and alcohol screening has reduced the pool of qualified drivers. Demographics aren't helping, as more drivers are retiring than are entering the industry. And carriers have been stymied in their attempts to import qualified drivers; with immigration a hot-button issue these days, shippers shouldn't look there for an answer. Throw in additional security measures and the probable introduction of the electronic on-board recorders ("black boxes") that many drivers dislike, and the situation shows few signs of improvement.

Some carriers, including Knight Transportation, flatbed carrier Smithway Motor Xpress, and Swift Transportation, have been "regionalizing" parts of their operations to allow drivers to return home every few days instead of making grueling, weeks-long trips. But even that may not be the panacea the industry is hoping for: Carriers report that they are struggling to attract drivers in regional markets.