WALTHAM, Mass.—Although at press time the average price of a gallon of diesel fuel was continuing to head downward, chances are remote that shippers will see a similar slide in fuel surcharges, say a number of transportation and fuel-industry experts.

As of October 4, the average price for a gallon of diesel was $2.546, which marked the seventh consecutive week that price benchmark had fallen, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA). At that time, the average price of crude oil was hovering around $58.50 per barrel, approximately 20 percent below the $70 or so seen earlier in the year.

Despite the current lull in oil and diesel prices, it does not appear that shippers will catch a break when it comes to fuel surcharges, said Michael A. Regan, CEO of transportation-rate analysts TranzAct Technologies.

The welcome change in diesel prices at the pump is partially due to a decline in the price of crude oil, Regan noted, but the pricing situation could quickly change in response to a hurricane or future conflicts in the Middle East. “My own bias is that shippers should be very thankful for what is occurring, and the fact of the matter is that the market is responding to a variety of factors,” Regan said. “One of the factors is that fuel prices can spike on a moment's notice.”

Retail diesel prices have not dropped as much as retail gas prices have over the same time frame, and they won't do so for many months to come, said James Haughey, director, research and analytics for Reed Construction Data. That's largely because of the Environmental Protection Agency's Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) requirement, which goes into effect this month. Other factors keeping diesel prices well above those for gasoline include continuing tight supplies and expected high demand for heating oil. “Anyone looking for an adjustment parallel to the decline in gas-pump prices will be disappointed,” Haughey said.

“Shippers—and the general public—are being lulled into a sense of complacency with these [lower] prices,” agreed Regan. Motor carriers will not drastically adjust rates, he predicted, because they would need to see prices remain low over the long term.

Although shippers' first impulse may be to celebrate the decline of oil prices, they would be better served by remaining cautious and by not reading too much into the current price situation. “The crude-price decline is camouflaging the cost effect [of diesel prices] for the time being,” said Bob Tippee, editor of Oil & Gas Journal, a Houston, Texas-based publication covering the petroleum industry since 1910. “But there's a definite floor under diesel prices that did not exist before, and I think there's some new structural demand because of the logistics of ethanol and other new fuels. When crude flattens out, it will be interesting to see where diesel is in comparison with its level the last time crude stabilized at a comparable price—whatever it turns out to be. It would be a mistake to interpret the recent price decline as meaning there's no problem with diesel.”