Although we're still in the early stages of finding out what levels of general rate increases (GRIs) will be implemented for 2007 by individual less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers and regional motor-carrier rate bureaus, and when they will take effect, some information about what's ahead is already available.

On January 17, the General Rate Committee of the Pacific Inland Tariff Bureau, which represents LTL carriers operating in the Pacific Northwest, became the first rate bureau in the country to act on a proposed general rate increase for 2007. The committee voted to go ahead with an across-the-board increase of 6.5 percent, and the effective date has been set for March 1. That's somewhat higher than we expected, particularly in light of the slowdown in the economy and associated fall-off in motor carrier tonnage.

Next to step up to the plate was SMC3's Southern Motor Carrier Rate Conference (SMCRC). At a meeting of its General Rate Committee on January 24, the committee voted to approve the following revisions in its class rates, effective April 1:

This is the first time in many years that SMCRC will be going ahead with a reduction in its truckload (TL) rates. The overall revenue impact will be 3.5 percent. This is a change compared to last year, when SMCRC raised its LTL rates by 4.0 percent and did not take increases on minimum-charge or truckload shipments. The 2006 GRI took effect on April 2, about the same date as this year's increase.

Next to take action on a GRI was the Middlewest Motor Freight Bureau. On January 31, its General Rate Committee approved an increase of 4.0 percent for LTL and truckload shipments, effective April 2, with no increase for minimum-charge shipments. The overall revenue impact will be 3.56 percent. We expect the Rocky Mountain Motor Tariff Bureau will follow, but at this writing no date for its GRI meeting had been set.

Of greater interest to the shipping public, I believe, will be what action major LTL motor carriers take on increases for their own individual class rates. We expect that details regarding the level of rate increases they will be implementing and their effective dates will be forthcoming sometime in February or early March.

I do think, however, that most of those carriers will be going forward with increases that will be somewhat higher than those announced by SMCRC, but lower than the Pacific Inland Tariff Bureau's GRI. I'd peg them at somewhere between an average of 5.20 and 5.95 percent, with a couple possibly coming in at just under 5 percent.

Last year, many individual LTL carriers set the effective dates of their general rate increases during a six-week span, from March 13 (such as Yellow and Roadway) through April 27 (such as Old Dominion). I think we'll be looking at pretty much the same time frame this year as we saw in 2006.

With business being what it is and economic projections for the balance of 2007 not very encouraging, I think you'll be seeing a lot of shippers putting pressure on their carriers to either scale back their rate increases or else raise their discounts.