Intermodal cargo: Economic rebound for shipping forecast for 2009

SAN FRANCISCO—While shippers will continue to struggle through this year, a leading transport consultancy maintains the economy will begin to recover in 2009.

 “Irrespective of modes, we see more industry players poised for growth next year,” said Frank Harder, principal with The Tioga Group Inc.

 In its recently released study, “Containerized Intermodal Goods Movement Assessment” (CIGMA), Harder and other analysts examined North American containerization trends and the outlook for imports and exports. Ocean cargo shippers may be surprised by some of its findings. Among them are these:

• China will continue as the dominant supply source; India and Southeast Asia imports are growing but on a relatively small base;

·        Some additional Asian cargo will shift to East Coast ports, but the West Coast will continue to grow;

·        Southern California container transloading will continue to play a major role to East and Midwest destinations; however, the efficiency of on-dock rail and inland logistics parks will continue to attract Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) traffic;

·        South Atlantic ports will expand due to all-water routings and regional market demands;

·        NY/NJ and Virginia Ports will continue as the primary East Coast entry points; and

·        A shortage of bulk shipping capacity is shifting grain exports to containers, creating a shortage of containers in grain growing regions.

 Supported by interviews with more than 60 leading firms linked to the supply chain, the report also supports some of the conclusions reached by LM readers in recent months.

 “Shippers are no longer placing so much reliance on U.S. west coast ports,” said Harder. “They have other sourcing strategies in place if there’s a labor disruption there, or something else contributing to congestion.”

 The wide-ranging report also examines ocean routing trends, ocean carrier rationalization, and port issues and capacity.