Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Are ocean carriers in a “boom and bust” cycle?

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
October 11, 2011

While the biggest ocean carriers seek the economies of scale from ever-larger super post-Panamax ships, they run the risk but of introducing too much capacity at the same time, thereby ruining the already fragile supply/demand balance.

This observation, made by Drewry’s latest quarterly Container Forecaster, also suggests that the “boom and bust cycle” is now an annual occurrence, rather than something that happens every 4-5 years.
Neil Dekker, a chief analyst with Drewry, noted that three factors will determine how the industry will develop in the next 5-10 years. 

Number one, he said, will be carrier behavior and commercial strategies. In other words, will they learn from their mistakes? Number two, will be the continued investment in ever larger container vessels. And finally, how will they respond if consumer confidence continues to erode, and “near sourcing” takes share away from global deployments?

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

With congestion issues and seaport gridlocks plaguing the transportation industry, air freight volumes are back on the rise. According to JLL’s annual Airport Outlook Report, global air cargo saw a 4.5 percent annual increase in 2014 and the forecast calls for 5 percent growth in 2015.

With a 3.1 cent increase, this week’s average price is $2.811, following last week’s 0.26 cent boost. The gains over the last two weeks come on the heels of a cumulative 16.3 cent decrease over the previous five weeks.

Transportation and logistics bellwether UPS began 2015 in solid fashion with first quarter revenue up 1.4 percent at $14.0 billion and operating profit up 11 percent at $1.7 billion. Earnings per share were up 14 percent at $1.12, which exceeded Wall Street expectations of $1.09, while revenue was shy of the Street’s $14.27 billion estimate.

Last week, the United States Department of Transportation took further steps to address various issues identified in recent train accidents involving crude oil and ethanol shipped by rail. The announcement was made by DOT with other DOT agencies, including the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).

Logistics Management Group News Editor Jeff Berman had an opportunity to interview Derek Leathers, President and Chief Operating Officer of Werner Enterprises, at this month's NASSTRAC Shippers Conference and Transportation Expo in Orlando. They discussed various aspects of the truckload market, including prices, fuel, and regulations.

Article Topics

Blogs · Global Logistics · Global · Ocean Cargo · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA