ATA annual report calls for ongoing trucking revenue and tonnage gains

When the numbers come out for this report every, I feel the need to do a double-take, because, in a sense, they seem staggering to say the least.

What numbers, you might be wondering? The numbers I am referring to are from the new edition of the “U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2026,” issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The annual report, which is drafted by ATA and IHS Global Insight, calls for a 28.6 percent hike in annual freight tonnage, as well as a 74.5 percent gain in freight revenues to $152 trillion in 2026.

Those numbers are equally impressive, considering that ebbs and flows we have seen with the economy, especially in recent years, as well as the never-ending wheel of regulations like HOS, CSA, ELDs, and others that most industry stakeholders continue to contend harm the sector, and subsequently the economy and supply chains, more than help it. But one positive amid the noise, at least for now, is that capacity, specifically on the truckload side, has loosened up some, which, in turn, provides shippers with some relief, and carriers more flexibility and options, depending on their size and nature of their business.

The main data points issued by the ATA in the U.S. Freight Forecast to 2026 include:
-Trucking will still be the dominant mode of freight transportation, although the share of tonnage it hauls dips slightly. Even though truck tonnage grows over the forecast period, trucking’s share will dip from 68.8 percent in 2014 to 64.6 percent in 2026;
-Due to tremendous growth in energy production in the US, pipelines will benefit more than other modes. Between 2015 and 2026, pipeline volumes will increase an average of 10.6 percent a year and their share of freight will increase from 10.8 percent in 2015 to 18.1 percent in 2026;
-While railroads’ share of freight tonnage will drift down from 14.2 percent in 2015 to 12.3 percent in 2026, intermodal freight will be the second fastest growing mode at 4.5 percent annually through 2021 and increase 5.3 percent per year thereafter; and
-The number of Class 8 trucks in use will grow from 3.56 million in 2015 to 3.98 million by 2026

“The outlook for all modes of freight transportation remains bright,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “Continued population growth, expansion of the energy sector and foreign trade will boost trucking, intermodal rail and pipeline shipments in particular.”

And ATA President and CEO Bill Graves added that this publication serves as a valuable resource for both public and private sector executives and decision makers in that it provides key data and information regarding the direction of the trucking sector and the economy that can aid shippers and fleets in making business decisions, coupled with detailed information to “instruct” lawmakers and regulators in regards to best practices to move the economy.

As has been noted in this space before, while the numbers can change in this report somewhat, the one underlying theme that seldom changes is that trucking continues to have the biggest piece of the freight in terms of tonnage, when compared to its modal brethren. That is something that is unlikely to change.

Another thing that bears repeating is that a solid and fluid trucking network is vital for our nation’s economic engine. And while the trucking industry is currently in a relatively decent spot, there is always room for improvement while facing major challenges, too.

These challenges what are often viewed as onerous regulations, the interminable truck driver shortage, and the increasingly beaten- up state of our nation’s infrastructure.
Here is another recurring theme to remember, too: trucking’s presence in the overall economy and the supply chain world cannot be swept aside. It can be a tough industry to be consistently profitable in while carriers of all sizes keep a watchful eye on service levels, and safety, for good reason.

It has long been noted that trucking activity can be viewed as an indicator for how the economy is doing. While that direct line is somewhat a tad more checkered these days, it still largely rings true and is worth watching as things slowly return to something at least resembling a more stable economic outlook.