Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


ATA June tonnage data is mixed

Seasonal data for June sets new monthly record
By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
July 23, 2013

The theme of mixed patterns was apparent again in truck tonnage data released today by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA reported that seasonally-adjusted (SA) truck tonnage in June was up 0.1 percent from May at 125.9, which topped May’s 125.8 and stands as the highest SA level on record. The next highest SA after June and May is December 2011 at 124.3. On an annual basis, the SA was up 4.3 percent, which the ATA said represents the largest annual gain since January, which saw a 4.7 percent gain. On an annual basis, the SA is up 5.9 percent, which lags May’s 6.5 percent annual gain, and year-to-date it is up 4.7 percent.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 125.9 in June, dropping off from May’s 132.4, and is up 2.3 percent compared to June 2012.

As LM has reported, some industry analysts maintain that the not seasonally-adjusted index is more useful, because it is comprised of what truckers haul. As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“The fact that tonnage didn’t fall back after the 2.1 percent surge in May is quite remarkable,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a statement. “While housing starts were down in June, tonnage was buoyed by other areas like auto production which was very strong in June and durable-goods output, which increased 0.5 percent during the month according to the Federal Reserve. Robust auto sales also helped push retail sales higher, helping tonnage in June. The trend this year is heavy freight, like autos and energy production, is growing faster than lighter freight, which is pushing truck tonnage up.”

While the ATA’s data is on the positive side, many industry stakeholders maintain that over all market conditions appear to be in a bit of a holding pattern, with no material increases or decreases occurring to a large degree.

Some of the market rigidity appears to be directly tied to cautious consumer spending, low GDP growth, a declining but still stubbornly high unemployment rate.

Many carriers have told LM that at the mid-point of 2013 demand expectations are relatively flat, with no huge increase on the horizon, but some have cautioned that they need to prepare for any meaningful upticks in demand that could come to fruition.

While tonnage has returned to mid single digit growth thanks to strong growth in freight related to housing and fracking, load count continues to languish,” wrote Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners analyst, in a research report. “The backdrop is decidedly mixed however, as the ISM [PMI] at 50.9 indicates almost no growth in industrial freight, while growth in retails sales excluding food, autos, and gas has begun to show improved momentum and housing continues to advance. We do not expect a strong improvement in demand in 2H’13, but believe that easier comps and a gradually improving outlook for the consumer should provide tailwinds for freight.”

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, recently said it is opening up the “vault,” so to speak. The vault in this case is making its copious amount of trade data accessible through an Application Programming Interface (API), which enables customers to extract Panjiva’s trade data into their own database.

Freight transportation and logistics services provider Averitt Express recently announced it has rolled out improved transit times for less-than-truckload (LTL) service from the Midwest to Toronto and other cities.

Data issued by the National Retail Federation lowered its 2014 retail sales forecast, due to a slow first six months of the year (and largely negatively influenced by the terrible winter weather), but noted that retail sales are expected to be strong over the next five months to finish the year.

Anne Ferro, a ferocious advocate for greater truck safety and a constant thorn to truck drivers and some unsafe trucking fleets, says she is leaving as administrator of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. No successor has been immediately named.

Data issued by the National Retail Federation lowered its 2014 retail sales forecast, due to a slow first six months of the year (and largely negatively influenced by the terrible winter weather), but noted that retail sales are expected to be strong over the next five months to finish the year.

Article Topics

News · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA