ATA reports annual gains for June truck tonnage

As was the case in May, truck changes in tonnage volumes in June showed mostly minimal changes, according to data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in June fell 0.5 percent in June at 131.1 (2000=100) on the heels of a revised 0.8 increase (down from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent) in May. June is off 4.7 percent from January’s all-time SA high of 135.8.

On a year-to-date basis through the first six months of 2015, SA tonnage is up 3.4 percent, with SA tonnage falling 1.7 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter while second quarter SA tonnage alone was up 2 percent annually. And compared to a year ago, June SA tonnage was up 1.8 percent, the ATA said, topping May’s 1.5 percent annual gain.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment came in at 138.2 in June which eclipsed May’s 132.7 by 4.2 percent. NSA tonnage in June was up 4.7 percent annually.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all
the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“With flat factory output and falling retail sales, I’m not surprised tonnage was soft in June,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “I also remain concerned over the elevated inventory-to-sales ratio for retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers, which suggests soft tonnage in the months ahead until the ratio falls. I remain hopeful that the inventory correction will transpire this summer. When the correction ends, truck freight – helped by better personal consumption – will accelerate.”

The high inventory-to-sales ratio has been a concern for freight transportation volumes for several months and is again reflected in this latest batch of ATA data. But some industry stakeholders expect to see seasonal gains in the coming months through back-to-school promotions and holiday season planning, which would appear to match up with the ATA’s expectation of volume gains later this summer, assuming the inventory-to-sales ratio heads down some.

“We expect truck tonnage to grow in 2015 given growth in housing, a stronger consumer, expected growth in U.S. imports, and higher automotive production though industrial production remains a headwind, though the ATA is cautious about tonnage near-term,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Rob Salmon in a research note.