ATA reports solid truck tonnage for October

October truck tonnage showed strong momentum in advance of the holiday season, according to data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) this week.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in October headed up 0.5 percent on the heels of an 0.8 percent (revised downward from 1.6 percent) September gain. The October SA index––at 132.1 (2000=100)––stands as the second highest on record after August’s 132.6, with the 131.0 recorded during November 2013 rounding out the top three.

The SA is up 4.5 percent compared to October 2013, which tops September’s 2.9 percent gain, with SA tonnage up 3.2 percent annually through the first ten months of 2014.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 140.4 in October, topping September’s 134.6 by 4.3 percent and was up 5.3 percent compared to October 2013

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“Tonnage made a nice comeback after declining in September,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “The gain fits with the increases in retail sales and factory output during October, as well as with good anecdotal reports about the fall freight season. The solid month-to-month gain, coupled with the acceleration in the year-over-year growth rate, is a good sign for the fourth quarter. In addition, I’m expecting a solid fall freight season as holiday sales are forecasted to see the largest increase since 2011.”

Holiday retail sales forecasts from IHS Global Insight and the National Retail Federation echo Costello’s optimism, with both organizations expecting 2014 holiday retail sales to be up more than 4 percent annually.

Those projections are also buoyed by relatively high levels of consumer confidence, improving jobs numbers, and GDP on the upswing, too.

As previously reported, industry analysts note that with trucking supply and demand levels still tight, things could get tighter, when various industry regulations take effect in the future, coupled with the fact that should GDP consistently remain above 4.0 in the coming quarters, capacity could remain as tight as it currently is, if not higher, for the foreseeable future, with a dearth of available drivers adding to projected rate gains in concert with potentially higher volumes, should GDP rise consistently.

Shippers and carriers alike, based on anecdotal reports, are positive about largely improving economic conditions that have the potential to result in material gains for trucking volume, as well as other modes, in the coming months.

“Truck tonnage signals relatively firm freight activity into early 4Q14 with seasonally-adjusted tonnage near year-to-date highs and year-over-year growth accelerating during October despite more difficult comparisons,” wrote KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Todd Fowler in a research note. “Commentary in today’s release highlights generally favorable peak dynamics in recent months, potentially further supported by stronger retail demand this holiday season.”