Boeing forecasts air cargo rebound

While the current air cargo industry is underperforming this year, Boeing is predicting a robust rebound, particularly in the Asia Pacific.

By Patrick Burnson · September 6, 2012

While the current air cargo industry is underperforming this year, Boeing is predicting a robust rebound, particularly in the Asia Pacific.

In its Current Market Outlook Boeing predicts that there will be a long-term demand for 34,000 new airplanes, valued at $4.5 trillion.

“These new airplanes will replace older, less efficient airplanes, benefiting airlines and stimulating growth in emerging markets and innovation in airline business models,” noted the forecast.

Boeing admitted that while commercial aviation has weathered many downturns in the past, recovery has followed quickly as the industry reliably returned to its long-term growth rate of approximately 5 percent per year.

China has been a particularly bright spot.

“It’s impressive that over 75 percent of the demand in China will be for growth instead of replacement,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of Marketing. “Sustained strong economic growth, growing trade activities and increasing personal wealth are some of the driving forces.”

The forecast observed that air cargo traffic has been moderating after a high period in 2010. Air cargo contracted by 2.4 percent in 2011.

“Expansion of emerging-market economies will, however, foster a growing need for fast, efficient transport of goods. We estimate that air cargo will grow 5.2 percent annually through 2031. We forecast a long-term demand for 34,000 new airplanes, valued at $4.5 trillion,” the forecast stated.

Boeing said these new airplanes will replace older, less efficient airplanes, benefiting airlines and stimulating growth in emerging markets and innovation in airline business models.


About the Author

Patrick Burnson
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at [email protected]

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