Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Capacity glut continues to haunt ocean cargo arena

This is in line with a “steam off” during the second half of the year, said shipping analysts
By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
October 13, 2011

The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) in Copenhagen forecasts inflow of new container tonnage in 2011 to be at 1.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). This is in line with a “steam off” during the second half of the year, said chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand.

“As the young fleet holds a very limited demolition potential, it is forecast to grow by 8.7 percent in 2011 – equal to, and outweighing demand growth by close to 2 percent-points,” he told LM.

Sand explained that the amount of idle tonnage has finally picked up, but as demand for new vessels remains weak, tonnage will still have to be retired to restore balance in the industry.

“Should the further leaking of revenue be stopped in the current environment where slow-steaming is already the name of the game, extensive idling or lay-up of tonnage, perhaps even beyond 1 million TEU, may still not be unrealistic,” said Sand.

Bimco analysts added that closing down redundant services is a start, but not the full solution to the task at hand. Global container fleets have grown by 2 million TEU since the turn of the year 2009/2010, resulting in the “active fleet” growing by 3½ million TEU in 20 months (real growth rate of 30 percent).

“Liner carriers are seen to redeliver chartered-in tonnage at the earliest convenience and non-operating owner are likely to carry the lion’s share of the idle fleet,” said Sand.

By extrapolating the trend in inbound loaded container volume on the U.S. West Coast, bearing in mind the disappointing back-to-school season and non-existent peak season, the outlook is “unpleasant,” Bimco added.

Volume growth in the trans-Pacific could become negative. The outlook for the Far East – Europe trading lanes is still not as dire, with an accumulated growth rate of 7.2 percent for the first 8 months and a stable accumulated growth rate of 7-8 percent for the months February to August.

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Earlier today, the United States Senate signed off on a six-year surface transportation authorization, according to various media reports. The bill, entitled the Developing a Reliable and Innovative Vision for the Economy (DRIVE) Act, passed by a 65-34 margin and comes at a time, when the most recent extension for surface transportation funding expires tomorrow, July 31.

Demand for the $500 million in available funding for the United States Department of Transportation’s TIGER (Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery) competitive grant program was easily trumped, with applications for the seventh round of TIGER grants coming in at $9.8 billion, or nearly twenty times the available amount, DOT said this week.

Global logistics managers will be tracking the progress of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks in Maui, Hawaii this week, as negotiating parties hope to finalize the agreement.

As has been noted in recent coverage on this site in regards to Peak Season, one underlying theme has been, and remains, how Peak Season is not what it used to be. That is not to say there will not be any Peak Season-related activity. Make no mistake, there will be and things driving it from the seasonal nature of business activity and cargo flows to higher demand and increased e-commerce activity, among others.

UPS Access Point locations serve as a replacement delivery address when consumers are not at home to receive a package or when consumers want a delivery to go somewhere other than their residence.

Article Topics

News · Ocean Freight · Global · Ocean Cargo · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA