Change in ocean shipping patterns measured by U.S. retailers

According to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, capacity will not be a problem.

By ·

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports will remain below last year’s levels for the remainder of the summer before seeing year-over-year gains again this fall as retailers begin to stock up for the holiday season.

According to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, capacity will not be a problem.

“We don’t see any indication that shippers will have difficulty finding containers on key trade lanes,” said NRF spokesman Craig Shearman told LM.

“Cargo numbers have been down this summer but that’s a reflection of last year’s unusual shipping patterns more than the economy,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

“The economy continues to face challenges, but job growth has been steady and retailers have been adding jobs themselves as sales improve. Cargo figures for this fall clearly show that retailers are expecting a healthy holiday season.”

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.25 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in June, the latest month for which numbers are available. That was down 2.6 percent from May and 5 percent from June 2010. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

June’s volume broke an 18-month streak of year-over-year improvement dating to December 2009, and declines continued in July, which was estimated at 1.3 million TEU, down 5.7 percent from July 2010. August is forecast at 1.4 million TEU, a 1.6 percent decrease from a year ago. Rather than indicating an economic downturn, however, the numbers are a skewed comparison against higher-than-normal numbers last summer, when fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual. Actual retail sales have seen 12 straight months of growth.

Year-over-year increases are expected to resume in September, which is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, up 10.4 percent from last year. October is forecast at 1.46 million TEU, up 8 percent from last year; November at 1.31 million TEU, up 6.2 percent; and December at 1.18 million TEU, up 3 percent.

The first half of 2011 totaled 7.15 million TEU, up 3.9 percent from the first half of 2010, and the full year is forecast at 15.28 million TEU, up 3.6 percent from 2010. Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 percent increase over unusually low numbers in 2009.

While cargo volume is expected to increase through this fall’s holiday shipping cycle, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said a number of key economic indicators are raising concerns about future cargo growth.

“Industrial production in China is weak, bulk commodity imports are declining, and ports are beginning to report reduced export volumes,” Hackett said. “In the U.S., we have lower private consumption, lower government expenditure and lower indices like the purchasing managers’ index. This is cause for concern because it could lead to lower growth of trade volumes.”


About the Author

Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at [email protected]

Subscribe to Logistics Management Magazine!

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Latest Whitepaper
Face security threats head-on. Protect data beyond perimeter.
Traditional Data Loss Protection (DLP) solutions present a number of serious shortcomings and challenges for companies deploying them, creating a clear gap in the market.
Download Today!
From the January 2018 Logistics Management Magazine Issue
Industry experts agree that costs across all sectors worldwide will continue to rise in 2018, and the most successful shippers will be those that are able to mitigate their impact on profitability. And, the right technology will play an increasingly vital role in driving efficiencies across the global logistics network.
The Future of Retail Distribution
Navigating the Reverse Supply Chain for Connected Devices
View More From this Issue
Subscribe to Our Email Newsletter
Sign up today to receive our FREE, weekly email newsletter!
Latest Webcast
IAM, IoT and the Connected Supply Chain
There are three primary models of Identity and Access Management (IAM) technology that CTOs, CSOs, and Supply Chain executives are using to enhance their trading partner communities. While each leverages IAM and the IoT as core components only an “Outside-in” approach truly connects people, systems and things reliably and securely across the supply chain.
Register Today!
EDITORS' PICKS
State of Global Logistics: Delivering above and beyond
Industry experts agree that costs across all sectors worldwide will continue to rise in 2018, and...
2018 Rate Outlook: Economic Expansion, Pushing Rates Skyward
Trade and transport analysts see rates rising across all modes in accordance with continued...

Building the NextGen Supply Chain: Keeping pace with the digital economy
Peerless Media’s 2017 Virtual Summit shows how creating a data-rich ecosystem can eliminate...
2017 NASSTRAC Shipper of the Year: Mallinckrodt; Mastering and managing complexity
An inside look at how a large pharmaceutical firm transformed its vendor and supplier relationships...