Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Current economic outlook is better than a double-dip

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
September 15, 2010

Retail sales and business inventories hit levels in August that topped expectations. There are two ways to look at this, I suppose: one being economic expectations these days are relatively low, and the other being that it is—and will remain—a long, slow crawl back to a sustained economic recovery.

It is clear that the sense of optimism from the first half of 2010 has abated to a large degree. That is to be expected, considering that much of that was fueled by an inventory ramp-up, which has since cooled down. This has been reflected in stabilized freight transportation volumes.

Even though there is some type of stabilization at hand, there is also good news out there, too, if you look close enough.

Take retail sales as an example. It was only up 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent in August, according to the Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation, respectively, but Commerce said it was the largest gain in retail sales in five months. When a few basis points can drive the biggest five-month gain, it is not hard to deduce that there is a long way to go. But we need to take we can get, right?

Inventory sales, according to Commerce data, are also up. Commerce said that In July, business sales increased 0.7 percent, the largest gain since March, to $1.09 trillion in July after declining 0.5 percent in June. Commerce said the inventory-to-sales ratio, which measures how long it would take to clear shelves at the current sales pace, was unchanged at 1.26 months’ worth, according to an AP report.

This is good news for carriers in that it means there is freight needing to be moved…maybe not at the clip they would desire, but it beats having parked assets gathering dust at a service center.

Another good sign is a report from the Port of Long Beach which came out today, saying that imports were up 24.5 percent to 311,240 TEU in August—its highest level since November 2007 (look for a story on http://www.logisticsmgmt.com later today on West Coast port data for August). This type of demand for imports is having a significant impact of domestic intermodal traffic in the U.S., which has been a shining star in freight transportation for more than a while now.

While things are clearly still challenging on myriad levels, the sky is not dark (all the time) like it was a year ago either. With unemployment still high, stimulus funds running out, and political bipartisanship to help augment things clearly a wishful theory at best, there is a long ways to get to where we need to be. But, hey, at least it is better than a double-dip, right?

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

During this webcast our presenters will apply the findings of the 23rd Annual Trends & Issues in Transportation and Logistics Study to the world of shipper-carrier decision making. They'll examine the primary aspects that will influence the future direction for shipper-carrier decision-making.

For February, the month for which most recent data is available, the SCI dropped to -1.0 from January’s 2.6, with FTR explaining that the short term positive impact from one-time adjustments for rapidly dropping diesel prices and the suspension of the 2013 motor carriers hours-of-service expires later this year.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in March was up 1.1 percent on the heels of a revised 2.8 percent (from 3.1 percent) February decline, with the SA index at 133.5 (2000=100). This is off 0.3 percent from the all-time high for the SA of 135.8 from January 2015 and is up 5 percent annually.

Intermodal volume was up 8.1 percent annually at 280,016 containers and trailers. This outpaced the week ending April 11 at 270,463 and the week ending April 4 at 271,127. AAR said this tally marks the second highest weekly output it has ever recorded as well as the first time container and trailer traffic was higher than carloads for a one-week period.

Ocean cargo carrier service reliability across the three core East-West trades hit a five-month peak in March with an aggregate on-time performance of 64 percent, according to Carrier Performance Insight, the online schedule reliability tool provided by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA