Despite temporary gain, FTR Shipper Conditions Index calls for a rough road ahead

With overall market conditions for shippers being largely viewed as difficult, the most recent edition of the Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) from freight transportation consultancy FTR is calling for more of the same in the coming months, even with signs of improvement in April, the most recent month which the report covers. 

FTR describes the SCI as an indicator that sums up all market influences that affect shippers, with a reading above zero being favorable and a reading below zero being unfavorable and a “less-than-ideal environment for shippers.”

In April, the SCI improved to -0.7 from -4.9 in March, following a decline from -1.0 to -4.9 the previous month. FTR attributed the gains from March to April to what it described as a temporary cessation of regulatory drag and drops in fuel pricing, which it does not expect to be lasting.

FTR said the reason for this is because of the expected uptick in diesel prices, coupled with the increasing impact of regulations in the coming years and its anticipated impact in freight market capacity.

“Shippers are in what might be considered ‘the eye of the storm’ right now,” said FTR Senior Consultant Larry Gross in the report. “After a very tight situation last year, conditions have eased as economic growth has slowed while truck capacity is relatively abundant following the Congressional roll-back of the 34-hour reset regulation.  Additionally, fuel prices are down.  We see little probability of any big near-term increase in demand, but capacity will inevitably begin to tighten once again next year, even at current demand levels, as the implementation date of more new safety regulations including the ELD mandate draws nearer.”

These comments from the FTR executive echoed similar sentiment from shippers, 3PLs and carriers at last week’s eyefortransport 3PL Summit in Chicago.

While many attendees indicated that market conditions were fairly steady in that trucking capacity has loosened somewhat compared to this time a year ago, they added that challenges remain. Among these challenges are the ongoing driver shortage, the pending regulatory crunch, and the mild uptick in fuel prices, among other factors.