Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Global Port Tracker report calls for significant 2012 export and import declines

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
July 02, 2012

The ongoing economic malaise in Eurozone nations is not likely to see any meaningful signs of improvement in the near future. That was the main message in the most recent edition of the Global Port Tracker report from Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.

Ports surveyed in this report include the six major container reports in North Europe: le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven, and Hamburg.

“Trade volumes remain on the decline,” said Ben Hackett, president of Hackett Associates, in a statement. “North European import growth rates are sliding towards flat to negative territory and exports have been flat for some months. The latest news from the industrial heartland of Germany suggests that we shall see exports declining in the coming six months.”

The report noted that the 2012 growth rate for European imports will be around 1.5 percent—less than one third of the 2011 import tally. What’s more, the report’s authors explained that North Europe will continue to be weak with most of its countries in or near a recession as defined by negative GDP growth.

Exports are also expected to be down, with a 3 percent growth rate, representing one-third of 2011 export numbers.

These estimates match up well with activity for the six Northern Europe-based ports in the Global Port Tracker report. Outbound volumes and inbound volumes for these ports are expected to be up 5.2 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, in 2012 compared to 2011, representing sharp annual declines. And annual gains are expected in only three of the next six months and three of the four next quarters.

Hackett Associates President Ben Hackett told LM in a recent interview that these projections portend a very weak European Peak Season.

“There are already reports out there saying that many ocean carriers are delaying or suspending their Peak Season surcharges,” he said. “That is not a good sign. It means shipments are expected to substantially weaken.”

Should the situation in Europe continue to worsen, it could have a trickle down effect on the United States economy, too, in the form of lower consumer confidence, Hackett explained. This would likely lead to a higher personal savings rate in the U.S., with the after effect being lower trade levels, with the warning signs on the economy. 

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

The PMI, the ISM’s index to measure growth, increased 1.8 percent to 57.1 in July. This is 1.8 percent higher than the 12-month average of 55.3. The PMI has grown in 18 of the last 20 months, with economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding for the last 14 months as the overall economy was up for the 62nd consecutive month.

YRC Worldwide, whose regional and long-haul units provide the second-largest LTL capacity in the trucking industry, narrowed its second-quarter loss to $4.9 million on $1.32 billion revenue, compared with $15.1 million loss on $1.24 billion revenue in the year-ago quarter.

With NFL training camps in full swing, it stands to reason that Congress must be replete with football fans, given how it basically has elected to punt on federal transportation funding yet again, with the Senate yesterday signing off on a ten-month bill to keep federal surface transportation funding intact through May 2015 through a nearly $11 billion stopgap measure.

Carload volumes were up 4.3 percent at 306,988, and intermodal volume for the week ending July 26 was up 3.3 percent at 264,809

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA