Global Port Tracker report has promising outlook for 2010 volumes
December 29, 2010
Much like its companion report focused on North America-based retail container ports, the Global Port Tracker report is calling for much improved 2010 volumes compared to 2009.
The report, published by Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics expects a 14 percent gain for imports across Europe in 2010 at 21.1 million TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) imports, which, the report said, would be in line with 2008 levels. Of the projected 21.1 million TEU for 2010, the report said that 13.9 million TEU are forecasted for North Europe, which would be a 12.1 percent gain over 2009.
2010 growth, according to the report’s authors, was spurred in large part by government stimulus packages and inventory re-building by retailers. Heading into 2011, the report cited various “austerity” measures enacted in certain regions, which are expected to result in 2011 growth coming in at 8-to-9 percent for imports, with exports at more than 5 percent.
Ben Hackett, president of Hackett Associates, said in a statement that much of this growth will occur during the second half of next year, with the first half expected to be slow with little sequential growth until the end of March.
“The 2010 recovery mirrored the North American economic recovery,” said Hackett in an interview. “Inventory stocking that occurred led to consumer demand, which helped volumes. The seasonal downturn for the end of this year and into next year will still be there but the second half of next year will be solid.”
Government austerity packages in France, Italy, and Germany also made an impact, with taxes going up—except for Germany—which will temper 2011 growth to a certain extent, leading to what Hackett called more subdued 2011 growth.
Ports surveyed in this report include the six major container reports in North Europe: le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Roterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven, and Hamburg.
The 2010 forecast for total shipments, including imports, exports, and empties, according to the Global Port Tracker report, is 37.5 million TEU, a 12.9 percent gain over 2009. Imports at 15.3 million are up 13.2 percent annually and exports at 15.8 million TEU would be up 11.4 percent.
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