Global trade growth down from August to September but still strong, says Panjiva

As expected, global trade dipped from August to September but still saw annual gains, according to data issued this week by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

Coming off of August, which saw 1,274,234 U.S.-bound waterborne shipments, which represents the highest level of shipments––or imports––since the company began tracking this data, September checked in at 1241,848 shipments, which was up 7 percent over September 2013 and up down 3 percent compared to August, which is ahead of August to September differences in recent years, with 2013 at -6 percent, 2012 at -4 percent, and 2011 at -8 percent.

On a year-to-date basis, shipments are up 6 percent at 10,564,890.

Panjiva said that the decline from August to September is a “fairly typical trend,” with holiday stock arriving to the U.S. through August that is then followed by a dip in September imports.

“These numbers look quite strong heading into the holiday season,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green. “It feels like executives are betting consumers will be in a spending mood come holiday season, with the main drivers being strong macroeconomic numbers, like GDP, and jobs numbers. The key numbers for the U.S. are all trending in the right direction, but one red flag has been stock market volatility, which has the potential to spook consumers.”

While the indicators indicate things are heading in a positive direction, the stock market, should things take a wrong turn to a true financial meltdown or a significant increase in the ebola scare could change things, were they to happen.

“Things would really have to go significantly wrong to change the over all story,” said Green. “In the near-term, the clouds on the horizon are China’s slowing growth rate and continuing uncertainty about the trajectory of the European economy. None of that will have an impact for the remainder of 2014 but it could in 2015.”

Even though it is clear buyers are optimistic about the holiday sales season, sluggish retail sales numbers remain intact, even though fuel prices are low and auto sales and home starts are solid.

Green explained that on some level it is possible that consumers are waiting to see a little bit more growth before they are really in a spending mood and may be waiting for the holiday season.

“Without question it seems like retailers are betting that consumers are going to show up at holiday time in a spending mood,” said Green.