Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Good, But Not Great, Rebound

image
By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
June 28, 2010

Beacon Economics’ forecast for the U.S. economy continues to be optimistic - in the short run.

“We expect overall national growth to continue in the 2 percent to 3 percent range for the second half of 2010,” spokesmen said. “One reason is that a large proportion of Federal stimulus dollars have yet to hit the economy. As they find their way to Main Street, 2010 could end up being a very strong year.”

But that’s the short run, analysts added, and a solid 2010 does not necessarily mean the same for 2011 or 2012. Indeed, Beacon Economics is growing more pessimistic about the medium run:

“The positive signs we’re seeing in the here and now are due primarily to monetary and fiscal policy and not because the U.S. economy has moved beyond the issues that plagued it two years ago,” they said.

Meanwhile, California-based Beacon Economics is forecasting that the Golden State’s unemployment rate will fall slowly from the peak it hit in the 2nd quarter of 2010 (12.6 percent), and remain above 10 percent through the end of 2011.

“We forecast that total nonfarm employment in the state will grow - but at an equally slow pace. Don’t expect employment in the state to reach its 2007 peak until 2015.” They said.

Today, the biggest risk facing California labor markets is the Federal Reserve being forced to raise interest rates to combat the threat of inflation - in turn having a negative effect on growth and hiring in 2011 and 2012.

“Like everything concerning the economy today, the future largely depends on the policy decisions being made in Washington” concluded Beacon.

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Key sanctions are unlikely to be fully removed until Congress lifts the U.S. embargo on Cuba – something unlikely to take place before 2018 when incumbent president Raúl Castro is expected to step down

The PMI, the ISM’s index to measure growth inched up 0.7 percent to 53.5 over May’s 52.8. This reading marks sequential growth for the third month in a row, which was preceded by five months of sequential declines.

Foreign direct investment has never been more important in catalyzing growth, whether in the developed or developing world. Although equity markets around the world have largely recovered since the financial crisis, global capital flows have contracted sharply.

When it comes to the chances of the December 31, 2015 Positive Train Control (PTC) deadline being extended, something which railroads say is badly needed, it appears they need to be prepared to be disappointed. That was the chief takeaway of a statement from Sarah Feinberg, acting administrator of the United States Department of Transportation’s Federal Railroad Administration (FRA).

It’s said that innovation will lead the economy out of its current funk. But how does an organization become a perpetually innovative company? That’s one of the questions Kai Engel and his co-authors at A.T. Kearney set out to answer in their new book Masters Of Innovation.

Article Topics

Blogs · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA