ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is up slightly in July
While some economic indices are showing signs of a declining economy, the Institute of Supply Management’s July Non-Manufacturing Report on Business shows a growing economy.
Latest NewsQ4 2017 Rail/Intermodal Roundtable: Improvements apparent; work remains The State of the DC Voice Market GAO report examines various facets of ways DOT can improve selection of freight and highway projects ShipStation fulfillment program provides parcel shippers with vetted options Behind the Koerber Group/HighJump acquisition More News
Latest ResourceThe Essential Guide to High Value, Low TCO WMS on the Fast Track A warehouse could become your weakest link if you can’t execute with speed and accuracy. Your bottom line will be negatively impacted, so will your customer’s experience, and they are only one click away from buying from your competitors!
While various economic indices are showing signs of a declining economy, the Institute of Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Report on Business for July shows an economy that is still growing.
The ISM’s index for measuring the sector’s overall health—known as the NMI—was 54.3% in July, a 0.5% gain from June. As is the case with the ISM’s manufacturing index, a reading above 50% or higher represents growth. July marks the seventh consecutive month the NMI is more than 50%.
Looking at the report’s key metrics, its Business Activity Index at 57.4% was down 0.7%, and the New Orders Index was up 2.3% at 56.7%. And the Employment Index at 50.9% was up 1.2%.
“The report actually exceeded my expectations,” said Tony Nieves, chair of the ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, in an interview. “The rise in employment is encouraging…it is only the second time it has been up since December 2007 [May 2010 hit 50.4%]. I thought Business Activity might take a dip, because New Orders were down in June as that usually translates to business activity depending on the cycle time. But now New Orders are up, which should translate into increased activity next month.”
The 0.5% gain in the NMI is due to a degree in gains in New Orders and Employment, said Nieves. He added that the overall expectations for July’s report were that the numbers would slip somewhat, which, he said, makes the data surprising to a degree.
The seven consecutive months of the NMI being above 50% lends some optimism to the overall economic outlook at a time when many economic indices are slowing down following a strong first half of the year. Recent signs of a slowdown include higher business inventories, lower levels of consumer spending, a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity, and fewer purchases of durable goods, among others. The confluence of good and bad news has led many experts to surmise that what is happening in the economy is a combination of mixed signals and cautious optimism.
“We are hearing that the jobless recovery is still happening,” said Nieves. “And housing is still lagging, too…and if it does not come back we could see a double-dip recession. I am not seeing it yet. If we were to see a strong slippage in manufacturing—which tends to lead going in an out of recessions—then we may see a double-dip, but I don’t see that happening at this point. Hopefully, this data will continue to trend out nicely over the rest of the quarter. Only time will tell.”
The NMI in the summer months can sometimes present misleading data, due to things like vacation schedules, and companies cutting back hours of operation, said Nieves. Data heading into the fourth quarter, he said, can often present a more accurate picture of what is really happening and provide better insight into exactly how the year will end.
Other NMI metrics: The NMI’s Prices index fell 1.1% to 52.7% and has been trending down for 12 consecutive months. Nieves said prices are declining due to a lack of demand and confidence. What is occurring on this front, he explained, is largely a matter of supply and demand, depending on the service or commodity.
NMI Imports at 48.0% were flat compared to June, and New Export Orders at 52.0% were up 4.0%.
About the AuthorJeff Berman, Group News Editor Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. Contact Jeff Berman
Subscribe to Logistics Management Magazine!Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!
34th Annual Quest for Quality Awards: 2017 Awards Dinner Trucking Regulations: Washington U-Turns; States put hammer down View More From this Issue