Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Manufacturing data provides blueprint for economic growth

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
November 11, 2011

Third quarter GDP growth was up 2.5 percent compared to 1.3 percent in the second quarter. And according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), its most recent PMI, which gauges manufacturing output, hit 50.8 in October, which equates to 2.9 percent GDP growth.

As LM has reported, any PMI reading at 50 or higher indicates economic growth is occurring.

That said, manufacturing is indeed making a significant contribution to overall GDP growth and perhaps leading the way, said Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, in a recent interview.

“If the rest of the sectors were at our level, real GDP would be closer to 3 percent,” said Holcomb.

What’s more, this strong manufacturing gains are coming at a time filled as any with economic uncertainty, given the current situation in Europe with the fate of the Euro hanging in the balance and myriad Southern European nations dealing with debt issues, relatively slight consumer spending here at home, and stagnant unemployment and housing markets.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI was north of 60 for the first four months of 2011, a pace that even back then would be incredibly hard to maintain in this economic climate.

“Things were going gangbusters and in that type of environment you want to position yourself with higher inventories,” said Holcomb. “But with the PMI now in the low-50s over the past four months, lower inventory levels [October’s was 46.7] represents a bit of a wait and see attitude, with manufacturers posturing to be lean and flexible. A low inventory given the current PMI levels are good and that needs to be taken into consideration when looking at the big picture.”

And at the moment, there is now more of a broadly positive optimistic tone than there has been in the last few months, observed Holcomb.

Now, more than ever, perhaps, managing inventories correctly and proactively is more imperative than it has ever been for shippers.

This is especially true when taking a long view of the 2011 Peak Season, which was very slow to materialize, if really occur at all, due in large part to shippers being cautious in not wanting to face the ordeal of being stuck with too much stock, as was the case in a big way following the 2008 holiday season.

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

As was the case for the second quarter, third quarter earnings results for publicly-traded less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers are again strong. Signs of solid earnings results from carriers that have posted earnings to date include tonnage increases, gains in weight per shipment and average daily shipments, higher yield, and revenue per hundredweight.

While the holiday season is known to bring good tidings and cheer to all, it may also come with another thing that is not so pleasant: higher rate freights. That was the thesis of a commentary written by Mark Montague, industry pricing analyst and chief market-watcher for DAT, a Portland, Ore.-based subsidiary of TransCore.

Earlier this week, FedEx said it is expanding its International First service for early deliveries with the addition of 31 new origin countries, which will bring the total number of origin markets for the service to 97.

Monday, December 22 is pegged as UPS's peak delivery day, as the company expects to deliver more than 34 million packages that day, adding that it expects to see six days in December top last year’s peak shipment day delivery record of 31 million packages.

The time has come again for less-than-truckload (LTL) general rate increases (GRI), with various carriers recently announced their respective rate hikes in recent days.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA