Panjiva data is bullish when it comes to prospects for holiday shopping season

{lm_summary}

Latest News

State of Logistics 2016: Pursue mutual benefit
NYK is latest ocean carrier to opt for INTTRA’s eVGM Service
NYK is latest ocean carrier to opt for INTTRA’s eVGM Service
Peak Season dynamics continue to see changes
AAR reports carload and intermodal declines for week ending July 16
More News

Latest Resource

Improving Packaging: The Cost of Shipping Air is Going Up
Retailers and manufacturers that insist on using inefficient and sloppy packaging methods—oversized boxes, inefficient packaging, poorly constructed palletized contents—are paying for their mistakes in sharply higher freight rates.
All Resources
By ·

If October is truly the month that sets the tone for the holiday shopping season, then data from Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, might portend a positive season’s greetings in terms of global trade growth and consumer spending, too.

Panjiva reported that U.S.-bound waterborne shipments in October—at 1,178,389—were up 2 percent compared to September and up 19 percent annually. Panjiva officials said this represents the highest level of October shipments since the company began tracking this data in 2007, adding that it could be viewed as a sign that retailers are prepping for a hectic holiday season.

Panjiva recently pointed out that U.S.-bound shipments in recent months have been on a strong run, and October was clearly not exception in setting the table for what it called last month a robust holiday shopping season.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S in October—at 172,534—was up 1 percent in October compared to September and was up 10 percent annually.

Panjiva CEO Josh Green said in an interview that October’s performance look very strong.

“It is encouraging as we head into the holiday season to see numbers that look like these,” said Green. “It certainly looks like retailers are betting that consumers will be in a spending mood this holiday season.”

This data follows decent retail sales numbers for October released last week by the National Retail Federation and the Department of Commerce and a GDP number from Commerce that was better than expected.

Green went so far as to say things on the economic front are better than Panjiva expected.

“Typically, we see declines from September to October due to seasonal variations, whereas there is an increase this year, which is promising,” he noted.

When asked what the drivers were for a 19 percent annual gain in U.S.-bound shipments, Green said some holiday buying by corporate buyers may have been pushed back to give retailers some more time to figure out just how much inventory they should have.

October’s strong numbers point to the possibility of a second peak month, with July being the first, he said, and speaks to a shift in when orders are being placed, too.

“It is too soon to call that the new normal, but there are signs that it could be happening,” he said.

With holiday shopping imminent, Green said it will be very interesting to see how consumers behave relative to what retailers are betting on. If consumers are active, he said it will reward the retailers who placed these bets—or orders—and they will have increased confidence heading into 2014. But if consumers don’t come out and shop as expected, it will leave retailers with an unwelcome inventory overhang, according to Green.

“These numbers reflect orders that were placed months ago, and on some level there was another scenario that could have played out, which was a prolonged government shutdown and a government-induced recession,” he said. “If you envision that scenario playing out with numbers like these, it could have been the perfect storm with retailers being left with huge amounts of inventory. But it now looks like retailers got that bet right and we now have to wait and see how consumers react over the next few weeks.”


About the Author

Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. Contact Jeff Berman

Subscribe to Logistics Management Magazine!

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Latest Whitepaper
Improving Packaging: The Cost of Shipping Air is Going Up
Retailers and manufacturers that insist on using inefficient and sloppy packaging methods—oversized boxes, inefficient packaging, poorly constructed palletized contents—are paying for their mistakes in sharply higher freight rates. Pitt Ohio White Paper, Logistics White Paper, Dimensional Packaging
Download Today!
From the July 2016 Issue
While it’s currently a shippers market, the authors of this year’s report contend that we’ve entered a “period of transition” that will usher in a realignment of capacity, lower inventories, economic growth and “moderately higher” rates. It’s time to tighten the ties that bind.
2016 State of Logistics: Third-party logistics
2016 State of Logistics: Ocean freight
View More From this Issue
Subscribe to Our Email Newsletter
Sign up today to receive our FREE, weekly email newsletter!
Latest Webcast
Getting the most out of your 3PL relationship
Join Evan Armstrong, president of Armstrong & Associates, as he explains how creating a balanced portfolio of "Top 50" global and domestic partners can maximize efficiency and mitigate risk.
Register Today!
EDITORS' PICKS
Regional ports concentrate on growth and connectivity
With the Panama Canal expansion complete, ocean cargo gateways in the Caribbean are investing to...
Digital Reality Check
Just how close are we to the ideal digital supply network? Not as close as we might like to think....

Top 25 ports: West Coast continues to dominate
The Panama Canal expansion is set for late June and may soon be attracting more inbound vessel calls...
Port of Oakland launches smart phone apps for harbor truckers
Innovation uses Bluetooth, GPS to measure how long drivers wait for cargo