Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Panjiva data shows seasonal growth, but long-term economic concerns linger

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
August 15, 2011

Even though there are more questions than answers when it comes to the economy and its growth rate, data from Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, showed a seasonal increase in the number of United States-bound waterborne shipments.

Based on its data, Panjiva saw a 5 percent gain in U.S.-bound shipments from June to July, coming in at 1,079,009. This follows 7 and 8 percent gains in April and May, respectively, and a 1 percent dip in June. On an annual basis, July shipments were down 1.2 percent from July 2010 at 1,092,255.

And the number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S. in July at 149,759 represented a 2 percent increase from June. Panjiva said this is in line with a flat gain from the same period a year ago and 7 percent and 6 percent gains, respectively, in 2009 and 2008.

“The shipment numbers are pretty good although we are still facing significant headwinds,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green in an interview. “That said, it is hard to have a lot of optimism for the second half of this year, but if history is any guide we are likely to see more seasonal increases from July to August.”

But if consumer confidence ends up eroding further, shipment numbers are likely to follow suite and will be reflected with low inventories, said Green.

Should things not improve significantly on the economic front for the remainder of the calendar year, Green said things could fall off precipitously in the second half, as lower shipments reflect orders that retailers are making now.

“The holiday season will be decisive as we head into 2012, and if it turns out that consumers were reasonably resilient in the face of all these economic headwinds, I think people will breathe a sigh of relief that we are not entering a double-dip recession and get back to building their businesses,” he said. “But if consumers pull back, which leads to a double-dip, it will be a while before there is again sustained growth again. The key thing people want to know is if we have hit bottom yet, and consumers will be a bellwether of the holiday season.”

And even with signs of seasonal growth apparent in Panjiva’s most recent batch of data, the economy, especially in recent weeks, still appears to be on shaky ground. Reasons for this vary, but some of the primary ones include: high unemployment, a sluggish housing market, the aftermath of the resolved U.S. debt ceiling crisis and the subsequent downgrading of the nation’s credit rating by Standard and Poor’s.

What’s more, export growth, a primary driver of the White House’s economic recovery plan, saw downward figures, with U.S. exports falling 2.3 percent to $171 billion from May to June, according to the United States Department of Commerce. June imports dropped 0.8 percent in June to $224 billion, putting the trade deficit at $53.1 billion which is the biggest gap in imports and exports since October 2008.

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Last week, the United States Department of Transportation took further steps to address various issues identified in recent train accidents involving crude oil and ethanol shipped by rail. The announcement was made by DOT with other DOT agencies, including the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).

Logistics Management Group News Editor Jeff Berman had an opportunity to interview Derek Leathers, President and Chief Operating Officer of Werner Enterprises, at this month's NASSTRAC Shippers Conference and Transportation Expo in Orlando. They discussed various aspects of the truckload market, including prices, fuel, and regulations.

During this webcast our presenters will apply the findings of the 23rd Annual Trends & Issues in Transportation and Logistics Study to the world of shipper-carrier decision making. They'll examine the primary aspects that will influence the future direction for shipper-carrier decision-making.

For February, the month for which most recent data is available, the SCI dropped to -1.0 from January’s 2.6, with FTR explaining that the short term positive impact from one-time adjustments for rapidly dropping diesel prices and the suspension of the 2013 motor carriers hours-of-service expires later this year.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in March was up 1.1 percent on the heels of a revised 2.8 percent (from 3.1 percent) February decline, with the SA index at 133.5 (2000=100). This is off 0.3 percent from the all-time high for the SA of 135.8 from January 2015 and is up 5 percent annually.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA