Panjiva data shows slight decline in U.S.-bound shipments

Seasonal economic trade patterns appear to be intact based on the most recent batch of monthly data from Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

Coming off of April and May which saw 7 and 8 percent gains, respectively, in the number of waterborne shipments heading to the U.S., June saw a 1 percent decline from May to June at 1,030,363, according to Panjiva. On an annual basis, June shipments were down 4 percent compared to June 2010’s 1,076,015 shipments.

The number of global manufacturers shipping to the U.S.—at 146,823—was also down 1 percent on the heels of matching 6 percent gains the previous two months. Panjiva officials said this output is in line with previous years’ May-to-June changes: +1 percent in 2010, -1 percent in 2009, and -2 percent in 2008.

“The economy appears to be treading water,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green. “The month-to-month data is where it has been in recent years. But these numbers are at the same time disappointing for anyone hoping for robust growth as we move into a season when holiday workers arrive.”

And unlike a year ago, when there was a fair level of optimism regarding the economic recovery—due in large part to a large amount of inventory restocking—the recovery overall appears to have stalled out.

Green said this has created a ‘wait and see’ attitude when it comes to the economy, with respect to things like macroeconomic issues and debt crises in multiple countries.

“This is weighing on the purchasing decisions of sourcing executives and on consumer sentiment,” said Green.

While most GDP estimates are currently in the 1.5-to-2 percent range, Green said global trade growth is more seasonally-based, citing how in 2010 June to July and July to August shipment growth was 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively. And he explained it makes sense to expect similar growth patterns in the coming months.

This type of growth could be considered a success, he said, and after August things tend to trend down through the end of the year for global trade.