Panjiva data shows that global trade activity is in a good place
July 15, 2014
Data issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers, showed that global trade growth is in a good position with more than half of 2014 complete.
U.S.-bound waterborne shipments in June—at 1,195,872—were up 6 percent annually and were flat from May to June, compared to a 2 percent May to June decline in 2013 and a 2 percent gain for the same period in 2012.
Panjiva CEO Josh Green told LM in an interview that these numbers show that overall global trade condition have been solid for the first half of 2014 and are in line with what Panjiva has seen in the global economy as a whole.
“There are a few things affecting global trade,” he explained. “First is the consumer side, with jobs numbers looking good, and it is promising as far as where consumer sentiment is heading and that drives imports. The encouraging jobs numbers are a good indicator of things to come. Consumers are going to drive trajectory of global trade for last half of year particularly as we move to the holiday season and
all signs at moment point to consumer confidence heading in the right direction.”
But at the same time, there are also headwinds to watch out for, too, which could negatively impact global trade. One is the possibility of a West Coast port workers strike, as negotiations between the Pacific Maritime Association and the International Longshore Warehouse Union continue.
Another item that needs to be monitored, noted Green, are the looming geopolitical issues in Iraq and Israel and there is some concern things could become more unstable and that can have a direct or indirect impact on global trade for things like the price of oil.
Even with those headwinds, he explained that things are in a good place overall, with total shipments up 7 percent annually through the first six months of the year at 6,790,666
“Any way you look at it being up 7 percent is a good place to be halfway through the year, and these are numbers people are looking carefully at as they are thinking about what to do for the holiday season,” said Green. “Healthy trade numbers combined with healthy consumer indicators suggest we are on a good path for the second half of the year.”
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