Panjiva reports strong trade growth for U.S.-bound shipments in December and all of 2014

United States-bound waterborne shipments ended 2014 in a strong position, according to data issued last week by an Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

Total December shipments––at 1,150,810––were 3 percent better than November and up 5 percent annually. And total 2014 shipments––at 14,092,551––were up 5.61 percent, setting a new record for annual shipments during the time which Panjiva has been collecting this data since 2007.

Panjiva CEO Josh Green told LM that December’s solid performance is in line with 2014’s solid performance over all, explaining that is not always the case, as it can be an unpredictable month to an extent.

“December is typically a reflection of what [buyers] were expecting before getting the verdict of how consumers would behave during the holiday season…and essentially placing orders with blinders on until finding out what happens,” he said. “Typically, buyers will be cautious not to accumulated inventory without real knowledge. The fact that these numbers are in line with what we saw over the rest of the year is indicative of a reduction in volatility and shows signs of solid growth for trade.”

What’s more, each month in 2014––with the exception of February––showed annual growth, with February being down due to the timing of the Lunar New Year.

Other factors leading to the strong performance cited by Green include improving GDP and jobs numbers, lower oil and energy prices, and European authorities looking to spur economic growth with recently announced quantitative easing stimulus plans.

Looking ahead, Green said on a short-term basis the two things to keep an eye on regarding economic growth are U.S. jobs numbers. If these numbers continue to grow in 2015, he said they could be viewed as a tide that lifts all boats. The other thing requiring close monitoring is the price of oil, which is having a very positive impact on trade and commerce due to the rapid decline it has seen in recent weeks.

Things to monitor in 2015 include Middle East tension, which continue to get messier and could directly impact future oil prices.

When asked about trade prospects for the first quarter, Green was measured in his response.

“January is a bit of a wildcard with the Lunar New Year having a big impact on when orders are shipped so we will have a better idea when we get through the end of March,” he said.