Panjiva reports that U.S. imports are solid from June to July and annually

Global trade growth from in July remained in positive territory, according to data recently issued by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

U.S.-bound waterborne shipments in July—at 1,258,142—were up 2 percent annually and up 5 percent compared to June. The June to July increase was in line with recent years, 2013 up 9 percent for the same period, 2012 up 9 percent, 2010 up 2 percent, and 2009 up 12 percent.

Panjiva said that these shipment levels are on a typical seasonal path for this time of year, with July posting the highest shipment volume for any month in 2014 year-to-date.  The company explained that it is likely due to the peak of the retail holiday import cycle, with stores stocking up for the 2014 holiday season.

“It is always exciting to hit a new high for monthly shipments,” said Panjiva CEO Josh Green in an interview. “Seasonally, this is what we would expect with July up from June as two things converge. One is the build up for back to school and the second being the beginning of the build up for the holidays.”

In the last couple of years, Green said July and August have jockeyed for the peak month of the year. With that as a backdrop, he said it is very likely that the August numbers will be similar to July. But if August does not match up with July, he said that would suggest things are more bearish heading into the holiday season.

On a year-to-date basis, U.S.-bound waterborne shipments are up 6 percent at 8,048,808 compared to the same period for 2013. Green said if this pace continues it would translate into a record year for shipments.

That would mean that the currently strong U.S. macroeconomic numbers would continue to look good, which Green said would help trade remain strong. Conversely, he said, that the current geopolitical outlook “fell apart” over this summer, with a number of global hot spots dealing with serious conflicts.

“That is certainly a headache for the White House and could create similar headaches for global trade stakeholders, depending on what happens,” he said. “Right now, the conflicts seem to be limited in nature and contained. But it things worsen between the Ukraine and Russia that could certainly put people on edge and any conflicts in the Middle East could negatively impact the price of oil and impact trade.”

Green also noted that Europe continues to struggle and if things worsen there economically it could affect global trade.