Port Tracker report expects January imports to be flat, with seasonal gains beginning in March

Editor’s note: This article has been updated with additional reporting and information.

Import cargo volumes at major United States-based container ports are expected to be flat this month, according to the monthly Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah.

Total volume for 2011 was estimated at 14.86 million TEU (Twenty-foot equivalent units), which would represent a 0.7 percent gain over 2010. This is slightly ahead of last month’s 2011 estimate of 14.76 million TEU. Both these figures are roughly in line with previous estimates of 15.4 million TEU, and 14.73 million TEU, respectively. 2010 ended up at 14.75 million TEU, which was up 16 percent compared to a dismal 2009. The 12.7 million TEU shipped in 2009 was the lowest annual tally since 2003.

“We’re headed into the slow season for cargo shipments, but forecasts indicate that retailers will be stocking up this spring in anticipation of a moderate recovery as the year progresses,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “Cargo volume doesn’t translate directly into sales volume, but when retailers import more it’s because they expect to sell more.”

November, the most recent month for which data is available, reached 1.25 million TEU, which was down 2.1 percent from October, which was the busiest month of the year by volume and when the majority of holiday merchandise is on retailers’ shelves in time for holiday shopping season. November was up 1.2 percent on an annual basis. 

Ben Hackett, president of Hackett Associates, told LM that 2011 ended up weaker than initially estimated in the first half of the year, even though it ended up positive overall.

“This was driven by a very good growth rate on the East Coast, with the West Coast being slightly negative,” said Hackett. “There was relatively low demand and slow growth for most of the year, with the April through July time period really impacting consumer demand.”

Looking at January and February, Hackett explained that the first two weeks of January, he said vessels should be fairly full due to the upcoming Chinese New Year, which is on January 23. And manufacturing in Singapore, Thailand, and China will be hectic right p until January 22 prior to factories in these locales shutting down for the subsequent for weeks. This will lead to strong cargo numbers through January into the first week of February, while the following five weeks will be slow, he noted.

Port Tracker is calling for December to hit 1.21 million TEU for a 5.9 percent annual hike and expects January to be up 0.01 percent at 1.21 million TEU as well.

And February, long viewed the slowest month of the year, is predicted to hit 1.06 million TEU for a 3.3 percent decline. Things are expected to pick up again in March, with Port Tracker expecting 1.2 million TEU for a 10.5 percent increase, followed by April and May at1.26 million TEU and 1.3 million TEU, respectively, for annual gains of 3.8 percent and 0.9 percent.

When asked about U.S.-bound ocean capacity, Hackett said the current outlook points to more capacity coming online although carriers during the winter months are holding back by laying up ships or parking ships for a week at a time.

On the rate side, he said that rates will be up from mid-December until about the end of January, due to the relative lack of space due to the surge leading up to the Chinese New Year, but after that they are likely to dip back down for two-to-three months.