Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Pricing Across Transportation Modes - January 2011


January 24, 2011





 

Trucking
In November, TL prices increased 1.3% from the prior month as LTL prices also gained 2.2%. The rollercoaster ride that sent trucking prices up an unprecedented 11.1% from the first quarter of 2007 to third quarter 2008 only to be followed by a 7.6% price plunge to the second quarter of 2009 appears now as an anomaly for the record books. Over the past six quarters, aggregate trucking industry prices again have bounced around on a calm upward-trending trajectory, mirroring prior 2002-2006 trends. By the time December data rolls in, we expect trucking industry prices will have increased 1.7% in 2010. Our forecast for aggregate trucking industry prices shows a 2.8% gain in 2011.






 

Air
Prices for flying freight in the belly of scheduled flights flown by U.S.-owned airlines also rode a rollercoaster ride, up 26.4% from the first quarter of 2007 to third quarter 2008 and down 13.2% by the third quarter of 2009. By the third quarter of 2010, prices for airfreight on scheduled flights had almost completely regained its losses by flying 11.5% above its 2008 price trough. With 11 out of 12 months of data reported for 2010, it looks like the industry will be reporting an 8.7% annual price hike for the entire year followed by a 2.2% price hike in 2011. Prices for flying freight on chartered planes (again U.S.-owned planes only) appears headed for an 8.9% annual increase in 2010.






 

Water
U.S.-owned vessels hauling freight over water likewise fell victim to volatile fuel costs and exceptional price swings. Here prices soared 19.8% to a peak price set in the third quarter of 2008 and then fell 15.2% to a low point in the second quarter of 2009. Since then, average prices in the water transportation service industry have regained 14.5% and seem poised to continue on a more traditional and predictable inflationary path. Inland waterways carriers displayed price volatility in November as their prices (excluding towing) fell 10.7%. In the aggregate, however, water transportation prices will end up with a 7.8% price hike in 2010 followed by a 4.7% increase in 2011.






 

Rail
Rail operators reported transaction prices soared 20.1% from the first quarter of 2007 to a peak in the third quarter of 2008. Yet the rail industry's peak-to-trough price decline was a relatively modest 10.5% and by the third quarter of 2010, average rail transportation prices stood only 3.9% below those peak price levels that made the record books a mere eight quarters earlier. Our forecast shows a steady upward trajectory for rail prices ahead, and by the end of 2011, rail prices will be setting a new peak. After a 5.1% annual price increase in 2010, we forecast a 3.5% annual increase in 2011. Looked at another way, the final quarter of 2011 will register a 4% price increase from the final quarter of 2010.

Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) August edition of the Manufacturing Report on Business saw its PMI, the ISM’s index to measure growth, fall 1.6 percent to 51.1, following a 0.8 percent decline to 52.7 in July. Even with the relatively slow growth over the last two months, the PI has been at 50 or higher for 31 consecutive months.

Hackett observed in the new report that China’s economy has lost steam, with actual growth falling short of targeted rates, while the United States most recent second quarter GDP reading at 3.7 percent outpaced expected targets, even though it was negatively impacted by gains in manufacturing and retail inventories.

The proposed merger of Cosco and CSCL could spark further container consolidation

The average price dropped 4.7 cents to $2.514 per gallon, which now stands at the lowest weekly average price for diesel since July 2009, when it was at $2.542 the week of July 27, 2009, according to EIA data.

The Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported this week that U.S. trade with its North America Free Trade Agreement partners Canada and Mexico in June dropped 3.8 percent annually to $99.0 billion. This followed a 10.8 percent decline in May to $92.7 billion.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2015 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA