Rail carload and intermodal volumes are down annually in November, reports AAR

Both U.S. rail carload and intermodal traffic in November saw annual declines, according to data issued this week by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

Rail carloads saw a 10.4 percent, or 129,259 carloads, decrease compared to November 2014, coming in at 1,041,605.

Of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR, six saw annual gains, paced by miscellaneous carloads up 32.9 percent, or 5,515 carloads, and motor vehicles and parts up 4.7 percent or 3,142 carloads. Coal was down 17.6 percent or 78,798 carloads, with the AAR noting that the total annual carload decline for November is nearly halved at 5.8 percent, or 41,461 carloads, when excluded from the total amount of carloads for all commodities.

“The decline in rail carload traffic in November 2015 was broad based, reflecting manufacturing slowdowns, energy prices and policy, and the constraint of a strong dollar. Even intermodal was down in November, largely due to reduced international traffic,” said AAR Senior Vice President of Policy and Economics John T. Gray in a statement. “Railroads are well positioned to serve their customers safely and reliably, but the economy has to cooperate.  We’re hopeful that will happen soon.”

On the intermodal side, the annual decrease was less pronounced, with containers and trailers down 1 percent, or 10,028 units, at 1,024,162.

On a year-to-date basis through November, carloads are down 5.1 percent, or 669,664 carloads, at 13,046,761, and intermodal is up 1.8 percent, or 223,272 containers and trailers, at 12,530,739.

Larry Gross, senior consultant at FTR, said that current volume trends remains well below 2006 levels, which stand as an all-time high.

“The peak was 2006 and we took a tremendous hit in 2009, and we are still not back,” he said. “Even with intermodal volumes above where they were pre-recession, carload volumes are still going to be down at the end of this year and not back to 2006 levels. Whatever is happening with regard to profitability or service is not necessarily a volume story; there is still something going on is the message there.”