Retail sales are modest in February, according to Department of Commerce and NRF

Retail sales for the month of February saw modest gains, according to data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that February retail sales at $437.0 billion were down 0.6 percent compared to January and up 1.7 percent compared to January 2014, and total retail sales from December through February were up 2.9 percent annually.

And the NRF said that February retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants, dipped 0.2 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month compared to January and increased 3 percent annually on an unadjusted basis.

NRF attributed the relatively quiet February retail sales output to winter weather quelling consumer spending to a degree.

“American consumers saw their shadows, snow mounds and low temp thermometers last month and decided to stay indoors,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement. “Extreme winter weather in many parts of the country impacted store sales in February, and as such monthly retail sales came in weaker than expected.”

The NRF executive added that consumers may have throttled back spending, but they maintain the ability and means to spend.

With the onset of warmer, spring-like temperatures and an earlier Easter, Kleinhenz said consumers will likely shake off the winter chills.

“With more jobs and income we would expect consumers to be spending more at this point in the expansion,” he explained.

Supply chain stakeholders describe the current market environment as it relates to retail supply chains as steady for the most part. But with fuel sales still relatively low, it did not carry over into increased consumer spending in February.

With lower fuel prices, decent GDP growth and improving jobs numbers, as well as better weather coming as spring approaches, many economists expect material gains in retail sales activity in the coming months.

Freight volumes are currently solid, if not spectacular, with USA Truck President and CEO John Simone noting in an interview that “freight is chugging along” but not to the point where volumes can be described as robust.

“There is no denying that the lack of evidence of a pick-up in consumption growth is disappointing given the boost to purchasing power from lower energy prices,” economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients cited in a USA Today report. “But even though we haven’t seen it feeding through yet, we do still expect to see that acceleration soon.”