Seasonally-adjusted truck tonnage volumes for September are flat but remain in a good place

While truck tonnage volume was unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis from August to September, it still remained in good company, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in September checked in at 132.6 (2000=100) for the second straight month, remaining as the current all-time high level for the second month in a row, with November 2013’s 131.0 now the second best month recorded.

ATA said that the SA was up 7.3 percent compared to September 2013, which outpaced the 4.5 percent gain seen in August, while the SA index is up 3.2 percent on a year-to-date basis.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, was 135.8 in September, 1.7 percent of August’s 133.5.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

Over all tonnage for the third quarter saw a 2.4 percent increase over the second quarter and was up 4 percent annually, with the third quarter average marking the highest recorded, according to the ATA.

“September data was a mixed bag, with retail sales falling while factory output increased nicely,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement.  “As a result, I’m not too surprised that truck tonnage split both of those readings and remained unchanged.”

Costello said last month that he was optimistic about the economy’s prospects for the second half of the year, which, in turn, would also bode well for truck tonnage.

And even with the spread in retail sales and factory output during September, both carriers and shippers tell LM that, to date, the second half of the year has been stronger than it has been in recent years, when it has seen a drop off in economic and related freight activity.

GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.6 percent for the second quarter, according to the third estimate for the quarter issued last month by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. This estimate, should it hold, represents a steep upgrade over the first quarter’s 2.1 percent contraction.

Industry analysts note that with trucking supply and demand levels still tight, things could get tighter, when various industry regulations take effect in the future, coupled with the fact that should GDP consistently remain above 4.0 in the coming quarters, capacity could remain as tight as it currently is, if not higher, for the foreseeable future, with a dearth of available drivers adding to projected rate gains in concert with potentially higher volumes, should GDP rise consistently.