Seasonally-adjusted truck tonnage volumes in August set a new record high, reports ATA

August truck tonnage volume rolled to a new record high in August, according to data issued by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) earlier this week.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in August saw a 1.6 percent increase in August on the heels of a 1.5 percent increase in July. The August SA index––at 132.6 (2000=100)––stands as a new SA high, with November 2013’s 131.0 now the second best month recorded.

On an annual basis, the August SA is up 4.5 percent, which is ahead of the 3.7 percent annual increase recorded in July and stands as the largest annual increase to date in 2014, with SA tonnage up 3.1 percent annually through the first eight months of the year, according to the ATA.  

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, came in at 133.5 in August, just below July’s 133.6.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

The ATA added that tonnage is up 3.1 percent over the last two months alone and has headed up 6.8 since a January low.

“After a strong July, factory production and housing starts fell in August on a month-to-month basis,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “Truck tonnage actually did the opposite. Not only did it increase, it accelerated. I’m optimistic about the second half of the year for the economy, which means truck tonnage should do well too.”

Current trucking market conditions echo Costello’s optimism, with GDP increasing at an annual rate of 4.6 percent for the second quarter, according to the third estimate for the quarter issued today by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. This estimate, should it hold, represents a steep upgrade over the first quarter’s 2.1 percent contraction.

Industry analysts note that with trucking supply and demand levels still tight, things could get tighter, when various industry regulations take effect in the future, coupled with the fact that should GDP consistently remain above 4.0 in the coming quarters, capacity could remain as tight as it currently is, if not higher, for the foreseeable future, with a dearth of available drivers adding to projected rate gains in concert with potentially higher volumes, should GDP rise consistently.

At this week’s Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Annual Conference in San Antonio, shippers and carriers alike were positive about largely improving economic conditions that have the potential to result in material gains for trucking volume, as well as other modes, in the coming months.

“There are many signs that the economy is positive, with a stabilization evident more so than in recent years,” said Con-way Multimodal President Tommy Barnes at the CSCMP conference. “We are all bullish but yet cautious, because there are still some risks regarding rising attrition rates and economic fundamentals that could impact the broad economy.”