September truck tonnage sees slight decline, says ATA

Trucking volumes saw a decline from August to September, according to data released today in the American Trucking Associations (ATA) Truck Tonnage Index.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage at 144.4 (2000=100) fell 0.9% in September after seeing a 4.7% August increase (which ATA downwardly revised from its initial report of 7.1%). On an annual basis, SA tonnage in September is up 7.4%, topping the 5.8% annual gain seen in August. Through the first nine months of 2017, SA tonnage is up 2.4%.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment and the metric ATA says fleets should benchmark their levels with, dropped 5% from August to September to 145.3, and it is up 6.9% compared to September 2016.

“Tonnage gave back some of the solid gain in August, but remains at very high levels despite the weather-related issues during the month,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Going forward, rebuilding from those hurricanes and other natural disasters like the wildfires in California will add to freight demand. September’s small setback doesn’t worry me. Freight has been improving and I would have thought tonnage last month would have been softer than it was.”

Earlier this year, Costello said it was reasonable to expect moderate growth moving forward as key sectors of the economy continue to improve slowly.

Some of these key sectors, which have been previously outlined by Costello, include things like lower inventory levels, better manufacturing activity, solid housing starts, good consumer spending, as well as an increase in the oil rig count – all of which are drivers of freight volumes.

Should the inventory issues truly continue to recede, it will go a long way in helping volume growth, especially if it runs in tandem with ongoing job growth, and the semblance of sustained gains in retail sales and consumer confidence, too.

Commentary recent industry conferences and trade shows has pointed toward fairly decent market conditions over all, with retail spending numbers showing promise, coupled with signs of a decent peak season, and tight capacity, too.