Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Slowing growth does not signal a recessionary contraction

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
October 04, 2011

Although the year began with a fizzle, Beacon Economics is forecasting that the U.S. economy will not enter into a double dip recession in 2011.

Similar to the recent ISM findings, Beacon suggests that growth will pick up modestly in the last half of the year and into 2012.

While the nation’s economy slowed sharply during the first half of this year, slowing growth is not the same thing as a recessionary contraction. For the economy to actually shrink, there needs to be a significant and sustained negative shock to the system. Beacon Economics does not identify any such shock hitting in 2011. A number of good signs include stabilizing home prices and the fact that construction should pick up somewhat by the end of 2012. Population growth is sure to help chip away at excess housing supply nationwide.

And while Beacon share’s our reservations about President Obama’s recent proposal to help jumpstart the economy, if portions of the package are adopted, there may be some positive economic effect.

Beacon Economics is optimistic in the short term, but they note that the U.S. economy is still far behind where it should be in this stage of the business cycle, explaining much of the weakness in the labor markets.

There remain serious issues leftover from the massive imbalances that pushed the nation’s economy into recession in the first place.

Beacon believes that ultimately, there are some painful but necessary adjustments to be made and issues to address –including the Federal budget deficit and recent “loose money” policies by the Federal Reserve.

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Join Industry Expert Adrian Gonzalez for this educational webinar on the tenets and the benefits of Closed-Loop Operational Management. You’ll learn how Closed-Loop Operational Management optimizes orders, inventory, and transportation concurrently, and how it is able to optimize large-scale problems on a daily basis.

In a separate conference call following CP’s third quarter earnings release call yesterday, CP CEO Hunter Harrison make myriad convincing points for a merger between CP and CSX and offered up his take in general industry M&A as well.

Seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in September checked in at 132.6 (2000=100) for the second straight month, remaining as the current all-time high level for the second month in a row, with November 2013’s 131.0 now the second best month recorded.

Ahead of its third quarter earnings call this Friday, freight transportation and logistics titan UPS rolled out rate increases for 2015 that are set to take effect on December 29, 2014.

The 'Internet of Things' or IoT is a term that has rapidly taken center stage in business and consumer technology circles, with tremendous amounts of hype in both. Don't be distracted if some of the hypothetical consumer examples of the IoT seem far-fetched; the trend has serious implications for businesses. This complimentary whitepaper takes a look at some of the opportunities afforded by the Internet of Business Things.

Article Topics

Blogs · Global · Global Trade · Economy · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA