Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Slowing growth does not signal a recessionary contraction

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
October 04, 2011

Although the year began with a fizzle, Beacon Economics is forecasting that the U.S. economy will not enter into a double dip recession in 2011.

Similar to the recent ISM findings, Beacon suggests that growth will pick up modestly in the last half of the year and into 2012.

While the nation’s economy slowed sharply during the first half of this year, slowing growth is not the same thing as a recessionary contraction. For the economy to actually shrink, there needs to be a significant and sustained negative shock to the system. Beacon Economics does not identify any such shock hitting in 2011. A number of good signs include stabilizing home prices and the fact that construction should pick up somewhat by the end of 2012. Population growth is sure to help chip away at excess housing supply nationwide.

And while Beacon share’s our reservations about President Obama’s recent proposal to help jumpstart the economy, if portions of the package are adopted, there may be some positive economic effect.

Beacon Economics is optimistic in the short term, but they note that the U.S. economy is still far behind where it should be in this stage of the business cycle, explaining much of the weakness in the labor markets.

There remain serious issues leftover from the massive imbalances that pushed the nation’s economy into recession in the first place.

Beacon believes that ultimately, there are some painful but necessary adjustments to be made and issues to address –including the Federal budget deficit and recent “loose money” policies by the Federal Reserve.

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor

Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

The saga continues, as the PMA and ILWU plan to resume their contract negotiations on Monday, August 4, in San Francisco

Carload volumes were up 7.6 percent at 299,256, topping the week ending January 12 at 290,607 and the week ending July 5 at 270,731.

U.S. companies made only marginal improvements in their ability to collect from customers and pay suppliers in 2013, while showing no improvement in how well they managed inventory, according to the 16th annual working capital survey from REL a division of the Hackett Group, Inc.

Study suggests solutions for filling the talent gap, including the development of robust ties with the education system.

The Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported this week that U.S. trade with its North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico increased 5.4 percent from May 2013 to May 2014 at $103.9 billion.

Article Topics

Blogs · Global · Global Trade · Economy · All topics

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA