Stay away, second half (economic) swoon

More often than not, especially in basketball and football, games are usually not won in the first half. When it comes to the economy, that type of thesis is very similar.

That is what makes this year, and, more specifically, this particular time of the year, pretty interesting. The reason has to do with the fact that in recent years economic spirits were boosted, falsely looking back now, due to strong economic momentum that was widespread during the first half of the year, only to see the momentum come crumbling down like a failed third down conversion on the gridiron or a foul shot clanking off the rim (something I can definitely relate to as everyone knows hockey players cannot make one to save their lives).

What got me thinking about this were really a few different things. One was that this year really does feel different, considering that we are in early November and the rug has not been pulled out from under our feet in the form of: sluggish GDP, which is solid based on the recent third quarter estimate of 3.5 percent, high unemployment, which is actually at its best levels in roughly six years (yes, the employment numbers can be widely interpreted, but they are good over all better than last year at this time, too), strong industrial production and manufacturing growth, low gasoline prices, and other things, too.

While the nation remains as politically divided as ever, one uniting force, at least in theory, is that more than ten months into 2014 the economy really is on better footing than it has been at this time of the year in a long time. This is not a partisan statement; it is far more of a factual one.

What’s more, it is being reflected in the form of fairly decent freight volumes for trucking, intermodal, and rail, as well as seasonally high import volumes at U.S. ports, too.

Another reason for optimism has to do with high levels of consumer confidence, which actually hit its highest level in seven years last month.  

While the positivity is, um, flowing here in this space at the moment, there are headwinds to be sure, when it comes to just how impactful or lasting the current vibe of good times really is.

A few things that come to mind are the global economy, especially in parts of Europe that are still in deep recession, with some of that self-induced due to heavy fiscal austerity packages. And tension in the Middle East and the Ukraine continues to loom and create cause for uncertainty, too.

Even with those headings hanging, there is plenty to like, and it certainly beats playing out the clock during second half garbage time, too.