Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!



Still no easy answers when it comes to the economy

By Jeff Berman, Group News Editor
October 29, 2010

Waiting for me in my ridiculously crowded inbox this morning was an e-mail from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which informed me that economic activity—i.e. the Gross Domestic Product—in the third quarter grew at a rate of 2 percent.

While this figure is certain not to get anyone excited about the pace of the economic recovery we all hear about, it is not altogether terrible either. Why? Well, the optimist in me says that it is at least better than the 1.7 percent GDP we saw in the second quarter. But the pessimist in me sees that it is down from the first quarter’s 3.7 percent clip.

As you can see by these numbers, things are moving along on the economic side, albeit very, very slowly. And we are seeing this case of economic stops and starts on the freight side, too.

A few economic indicators we look at tell that story pretty clearly. These things include; the American Trucking Associations monthly truck tonnage data, which saw slight sequential growth in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis; strong but declining West Coast Port TEU tallies; and steady and occasionally very impressive weekly carload and intermodal volumes released by the Association of American Railroads.

One thing these types of freight/economic indicators all have in common is that when it comes to seeing consistent and meaningful economic growth, there are no easy answers. Not exactly news, I know, but it is truly the elephant in the corner, it seems.

There simply is no getting around the fact that the economy is still in a rough place. Are things better than a year ago? Yes. But, still, more needs to happen.

That is where the holiday shopping season comes in. Talk about the biggest and most timely (and ubiquitous) economic indicator there is. I am cautiously expecting malls to get more crowded every time I go to one between now and the end of December. Yes, there is the obvious seasonality factor that comes with that thought. But seeing how busy—and how well prepared— retailers are for whatever happens will be quite telling, even though overall expectations are, understandably, relatively low for obvious reasons (see high unemployment rate at the top of the list).

That much was made obvious by the National Retail Federation’s recent 2.3 percent year-over-year growth forecast for this year’s holiday shopping season.

In any event, the economy continues to zig and zag, leaving us, as per the usual at this point, with more questions than answers. Stay tuned for a lot more uncertainty as we all try to navigate this storm.

About the Author

Jeff Berman headshot
Jeff Berman
Group News Editor

Jeff Berman is Group News Editor for Logistics Management, Modern Materials Handling, and Supply Chain Management Review. Jeff works and lives in Cape Elizabeth, Maine, where he covers all aspects of the supply chain, logistics, freight transportation, and materials handling sectors on a daily basis. .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Subscribe to Logistics Management magazine

Subscribe today. It's FREE!
Get timely insider information that you can use to better manage your
entire logistics operation.
Start your FREE subscription today!

Recent Entries

Even though some of its key metrics dropped sequentially from August to September, the outlook for manufacturing over all remains strong, according to the most recent edition of the Manufacturing Report on Business issued today by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Company officials said that these planned changes, which will take effect on January 4, 2015, will provide for increases in current pay rates and reduce the time it takes for its nearly 15,000 drivers to reach top pay scale.

While the economy has seen more than its fair share of ups and downs in recent years, 2014 is different in that it could be the best year from an economic output perspective in the last several years. That outlook was offered up by Rosalyn Wilson, senior business analyst at Parsons, and author of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Annual State of Logistics Report at last week’s CSCMP Annual Conference in San Antonio.

Matching last week, the average price per gallon of diesel gasoline dropped 2.3 cents, bringing the average price per gallon to $3.755 per gallon, according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).

A number of key topics impacting the freight transportation and logistics marketplace were front and center at a panel at the Council of Supply Chain Management Annual Conference in San Antonio last week.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2013 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA