Truck tonnage is mixed again in August, reports ATA

As was the case in July, truck tonnage was again mixed in August, according to data issued this week by the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA reported that seasonally-adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage in August at 134.2 (2000=100) dropped 0.9 percent, coming off a revised 3.1 percent gain (from an original reading of 2.8 percent) in July. August is below January’s all-time SA high of 135.8, which was reached in January of this year.

On an annual basis, SA tonnage in August was up 2.1 percent compared to August 2014, down from July’s 4 percent annual hike. And on a year-to-date basis through August it is up 3.3 percent.

The ATA’s not seasonally-adjusted (NSA) index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment was 137.0 in August, down slightly from July’s 137.6. Compared to August 2014, the NSA was up 2.6 percent.

As defined by the ATA, the not seasonally-adjusted index is assembled by adding up all the monthly tonnage data reported by the survey respondents (ATA member carriers) for the latest two months. Then a monthly percent change is calculated and then applied to the index number for the first month.

“After such a robust July, it is not too surprising that tonnage took a breather in August,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a statement. “The dip after a strong gain goes with the up and down pattern we’ve seen this year. As I said last month, I remain concerned about the high level of inventories throughout the supply chain. This could have a negative impact on truck freight volumes over the next few months.”

The ATA executive added that things like soft housing starts and falling factory output also impacted August’s data.

As previously reported, the high inventory-to-sales ratio has been a concern for freight transportation volumes for several months and is again reflected in this latest batch of ATA data.

Carriers and shippers maintain that volumes could inch higher should the inventory-to-sales ratio decline and consumer activity heat up in advance of the holidays and back-to-school shopping in some parts of the country. And it is also worth noting that the overall economy was stronger at this time last year, too.

At this week’s Intermodal Expo hosted by the Intermodal Association of North America, some shippers and carriers said they expect to see tonnage improvements towards the end of 2015 and into 2016, with current volumes impacted to a degree by cautious consumer spending, coupled with ongoing global economic headwinds.

Deutsche Bank analyst commented in a research note that his firm expects truck tonnage to grow in the second half of the year, “given solid housing construction, automotive production, and job growth though industrial production and elevated inventories remain potential headwinds.”