Logistics Management

Dave Schneider

Gaining Momentum,
September 8, 2008

The changes of past month on the political, economic, sporting and international stages have been awesome and somewhat scary for some people. Change is scary when it is unexpected or unwanted.

The unwanted changes are the ones that confound and confuse. I think of my 3 year old daughter and how she acts when she is playing and it is time for bed. She “knows” that she has to go to bed, but will “throw down” a solid tantrum anyway, because she does not want to go to bed.

 “It’s all about the oil” was the rally cries of the anti-war movement when the US invaded Iraq. Yes, there was a crumb of truth to that statement, but the reality now is that the first player to “win” a deal on that oil was not a US oil company, but the state oil company of China. Did we hear the same cries about “It’s all about the gas” with the shutdown of the Ukraine pipelines last year or the Russian invasion of Georgia this summer? All of the noise about supporting a separatist movement was just that, noise. The real change is not that the small country of Georgia was invaded, but that Russia demonstrated clearly that they are in control, that Europe is ready to kneel to the Kremlin, that NATO is powerless, and that the US has little chance in weakening Moscow’s power.

T Boon Pickens, and others, see the danger. They could see the danger years before. The increased drilling for natural gas across the country is not the game changer; it is the change in the use of that gas that will be the game changer. There are those that do not want that change, others that do, and others that don’t want it right now, but in a while. Why wait? Is there a personal gain issue? Or is it a “Hey, that was my idea!” issue?

Oil prices are coming down.  Each week for the past month I have watched the headlines about the lower cost of gas and diesel. Those who bet on higher prices are getting squeezed. Same with the investors who thought that commodity prices would continue to increase. Demand is still there, but has softened. 

I was reminded this morning of the way my mother used to drive. When I was a kid in the 70’s, when gas prices climbed above 29 cents a gallon to 35 cents, my family traded in the big Chevy station wagon for a VW micro bus. I remember my parents talking about how this was to save on gas. Funny thing was that that micro bus really did not save our family any money, unless mom got “creative” in her driving. The VW bus had no power, so uphill on the highway it would slow and slow until we would crest the hill. Then downhill Mom would get the bus running as fast as she could to build momentum to get up the next hill. I and my siblings were used to this pattern, the increased speed downhill and the slow climb up hill. 

Then one day Mom decided to try something new, and once the speed got up to 60 she would shift the stick into neutral and coast down the hill. Talk about freaking out three kids and the dog. Every time she would do it on the downhill slope three heads would look up, a slight panic on our faces and an eerie quiet as the bus would pick up speed and momentum. On the uphill Mom would wait until the speed dropped below 60 before slipping in the clutch and gunning the engine for the uphill climb.

None of us kids liked it. It scared us. We had no reason to be scared, but we were. And all of that afternoon we would freak out on each downhill. That is until we stopped for gas and Mom bought us popsicles out of the “savings” in gas. With this strange coasting Mom stretched the mileage on the trip to where the bus got better than 20 MPG, “saving” enough money to afford to buy the three of us popsicles.

Now we were on board with the change. On that second tank the worry went away with the happy expectation of another Popsicle at the next gas stop. That is until we learned that at the next stop Mom had no intention of spending the savings.

The point is that change happens, and that while some benefit, others don’t, or they don’t see the benefit. He who benefits, or can see the benefit, will support the change. Other’s who do not benefit, or cannot see how the change can benefit them will fight the change.  

When you are pushing for a change, are you selling the benefit? Are you selling a benefit that is only for some, and not for others? Are you overlooking the “hidden” benefits?

The final thought that I leave with you is from the domestic political arena. The concept of change is a big theme of both of the candidates, with both fighting to be seen as the legitimate “change” to the scene. Last week a surprise was unveiled with the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate. The reaction of the opposition party (and the press to the point) was one of personal attack.  Kind of sounded like my 3 year old.

I think that the change was great for the American voter. We now have about 50 days to figure out which pair of leaders will be the right pair. The playing field has now been altered, and I don’t see it going back. It will be exciting. It will be entertaining.

I wish my Mom was still around to watch what is happening. I think she would smile and remind us of coasting downhill. After that day of her experiment she never did it again, but she did not race down the hill again either. But her MPG was never below 20 either. She learned, adapted, and made the better of it.

Posted by Dave Schneider on September 8, 2008 | Comments (1)