Glimmer of Light for Golden State?

Amid all the bad news and grim economic projections gripping California these days, comes word from one reliable source that recovery may be around the corner.
Comerica Bank’s inaugural release of its Comerica California Economic Activity Index shows a three point rise in July, to a level of 99. July’s reading is up eight points cumulatively from its March low of 91, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The Index is one point below its year-ago level of 100. Year-to-date, the Index has averaged six points below the average for all of 2008.
“The California economy has begun to rebound over the last several months with six of the nine components of our Index contributing positively,” said Dana Johnson, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Sales tax revenues, which so far have been the biggest contributor to the rebound in our Index, may flatten out in upcoming months, thereby reversing some of the recent strength. I will become much more confident that a sustainable recovery is underway once I begin to see employment gains also contributing to the rise of our Index.”
The Comerica California Economic Activity Index equally weights nine seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100. A complete historical series dating to 1997 is available upon request.